Why is the crypto market going up amid the US-Iran war?

The crypto market is going up today, with Bitcoin and most altcoins being in the green. Bitcoin jumped above the key resistance level at $74,000 for the first time in weeks, while the market capitalization of all coins jumped to $2.51 trillion.

LayerZero (ZRO) was the best-performing major cryptocurrency as its price jumped by nearly 13%. Bonk jumped by 8.60%, while Zcash (ZEC), Pepe (PEPE), River (RIVER), Ethereum (ETH), and Aave rising by over 6%.

Top crypto gainers today | Source: TradingView

Why the crypto market is going up as stocks sink

The ongoing crypto market rally is happening as global stocks sink. Chinese stock indices like the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite dropped by over 0.70%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped by over 0.40%.

On the other hand, American stock futures were in the green, with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 indices rising by over 0.40%. 

There are a few possible reasons why Bitcoin and the crypto market are in the green. First, there is a possibility that some investors believe that Bitcoin is a safe haven as geopolitical risks rise.

Geopolitical risks have jumped in the last three weeks, pushing crude oil prices to the highest level in years. Key benchmarks like Brent and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) have jumped to over $95, and Iran aims to push it to $200 in the coming weeks.

Second, the crypto market is going up amid signs of potential rotation from gold to Bitcoin. Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have added over $1.3 billion in assets this month, while the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has lost assets in the last two consecutive weeks.

Other altcoin ETFs have added assets in the past few days. Ethereum funds have had inflows in the past four consecutive days, bringing the cumulative total inflows to nearly $12 billion. Similarly, Solana ETFs have added assets in the last three days.

Third, the crypto market rally is happening as investors buy the Iran war news. Bitcoin and most altcoins dropped before the war started, meaning that they are now buying as the war was already priced in.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index has moved to the neutral level 

Additionally, there are signs that investors are no longer fearful as they did a few weeks ago. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has moved from the extreme fear zone of 10 to the neutral point at 41. Also, the Altcoin Season Index has risen to 45 from the year-to-date low of below 20.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index chart | Source: CMC

Finally, the ongoing crypto market rally could be a dead-cat bounce, a situation where an asset in a freefall bounces back briefly and then resumes the downtrend.

Looking ahead, crypto prices will react to the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday this week and the progress on Donald Trump's war in Iran.

Economists expect the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75% and hint at the status quo as inflation remains elevated.