NVIDIA stock at risk as technicals and fundamentals collide

NVIDIA stock price has slumped this year, and the situation may worsen in the coming weeks after it dropped to a crucial support level.

NVDA fell to a low of $172 on Monday, down by 17.65% from its highest point in 2025.

There are signs that its technicals and fundamentals have collided this year.

NVIDIA stock price technical analysis points to a steep crash 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the NVDA stock price has dropped from the all-time high of $212 to the current $175.

A closer look shows that the stock has formed the risky head-and-shoulders pattern, which is a common bearish reversal sign in technical analysis.

It is now hovering near the neckline of this pattern.

The stock has already dropped below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level at $182.

It has also moved below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).

Therefore, technical analysis suggests that the stock will have a strong bearish breakdown in the coming days, potentially to the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level at $164.

A drop below that level will point to more downside to the 50% retracement level at $150.

NVDA stock chart | Source: TradingView 

NVIDIA has some of the best fundamentals 

The bearish NVIDIA stock price forecast is happening despite the fact that the company has some of the best fundamentals in the United States.

Its most recent results showed that the company's business continued doing well, with its revenue rising by 72% to $67 billion.

It is rare to find a company that was started 33 years ago experiencing this revenue growth.

Most importantly, the company has more room to grow. In a recent speech, Jensen Huang noted that the company will make over $1 trillion in revenue through 2027, helped by its Vera Rubin and Blackwell chips.

Another Reuters report found that Amazon was planning to make an order of 1 million chips for its data centres.

This is important as Amazon is already building its own chips.

As such, the management believes that NVIDIA’s chips have an edge against its internally built semiconductors.

The top technology companies in the United States, like Meta Platforms, Google, and Microsoft, plan to spend over $650 billion in capital expenditure this year.

Many more companies like CoreWeave, Nebius, IREN, and Bitfarms are spending billions of dollars in Capex, with most of it being in NVIDIA chips.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump plans to visit China either in April or in May.

One of the agendas will be on how to improve trade relations between the two sides, and NVIDIA may be mentioned.

A decision by the US to allow the sale of NVIDIA chips to China would be a big one, as demand for its GPUs remains high.

Most importantly, NVIDIA has become one of the most undervalued companies on Wall Street.

Data compiled by Seeking Alpha shows that the company trades at 20x forward earnings, lower than the S&P 500 Index’s average of 23.

Its forward PEG ratio has moved to 0.50, also lower than the sector median of 1.24.

The company has one of the best Rule of 40 metrics because of its profit margin of 53%, and forward revenue growth is over 60%.

This gives it a rule-of-40 multiple of 113%, meaning that it has a combination of growth and high margins.

Therefore, the most likely NVIDIA stock price forecast is moderately bearish based on its technicals.

The stock will then bounce back later this year as its fundamentals improve.