Solana price prediction April: On the verge of a steep crash?

Solana price has remained in a narrow range since February as demand among investors faded. SOL token has remained between the key support and resistance levels at $77 and $96. It remains about 72% below the highest point last year. This article provides the SOL price forecast for April and what to expect.

Solana price technical analysis points to a crash in April 

The three-day chart shows that the Solana price has come under pressure in the past few months, moving from a high of $294.27 in June last year to the current $83.45.

Solana has remained below the important support level at $107.65, the neckline of the head-and-shoulders chart pattern, a common bearish reversal sign in technical analysis.

It has remained below the Supertrend indicator, a sign that bears remain in control. The coin has also formed a large bearish flag pattern, which forms after a steep dive, which is followed by a horizontal channel. 

Solana has remained below all moving averages. Therefore, the coin will likely have a strong bearish breakdown, potentially to the year-to-date low of $68.54. A move below that price will point to more downside, potentially to the psychological level at $50.

The bearish Solana price forecast will become invalid if it moves above the crucial resistance level at $107. Such a move will point to more gains, potentially to the 100-day moving average at $134.

Solana price chart | Source: TradingView 

Spot SOL ETFs suffered the weakest inflows 

SOL price remained on edge amid the ongoing weak demand in Wall Street. SoSoValue data shows that these funds added over $45 million in assets in April, the weakest inflows since their inception in October last year. 

The inflows have been in a strong downward trend since their inception, moving from $419 million in November to $147 million in December. They stood at $104 million and $63 million in January and February. As such, if the trend continues, there is a possibility that these funds will record outflows in April as investors capitulate.

Solana has also lost demand from treasury companies. Data compiled by CoinGecko shows that no company bought SOL tokens in the last 30 days. These companies now hold over 18.3 million tokens worth over $1.5 billion, with Forward Industries, Solana Company, DeFi Development, and Upexi being the biggest holders.

Meanwhile, the futures open interest has stagnated in the past two weeks. It stood at over $5.1 billion on Wednesday, down from $17 billion in September last year. The open interest has remained in a narrow range since the first week of February.

Additionally, Solana's activity has waned in the past few weeks. Nansen data shows that the number of active addresses dropped by 13% in the last 30 days to 99.5 million. Also, the number of transactions dropped by 4.2% to 2.5 billion.

A good example of this is in the decentralized exchange (DEX) industry, where the volume dropped to $57 billion in March, its lowest level in months. It has dropped from over $313 billion in January last year.

Solana DEX volume | Source: DeFi Llama

The weakness has also coincided with the ongoing delay of the Alpenglow upgrade, which was expected to happen in the first quarter of the year. The hope is that this upgrade will happen in the current quarter, introducing major changes to the network, including boosting speeds and changing its architecture.