McDonald's earnings preview: prediction markets betting big on a beat

Chicago-headquartered McDonald’s Corp MCD is inching higher in the run-up to its Q1 earnings set to land on May 7^th before market open.

Consensus is for the fast-good giant to post $2.75 per share of earnings (EPS) for its first financial quarter on an 8.9% year-over-year increase in revenue to $6.49 billion.

Despite recent gains, McDonald’s stock has been a major laggard in 2026, currently down roughly 17% versus its year-to-date high in late February.

Prediction markets expect MCD to beat Q1 estimates

Heading into McDonald’s quarterly release, the “wisdom of the crowd” in decentralized finance is leaning toward a positive surprise.

According to Polymarket, traders are pricing in a 77% chance that MCD will come in ahead of Q1 estimates on Thursday – and the sentiment is mirrored in the “high-stakes” world of the derivatives market.

The put-to-call ratio on options contracts expiring May 8 sits at 0.5 currently – indicating a bullish skew – with the upper price at $294, suggesting MCD shares could be up over 3% from here after earnings.

McDonald’s technicals also warrant a near-term pop.

At the time of writing, the company’s relative strength index (RSI) sits in the early 30s, indicating it’s already hovering around the “oversold” territory.

Historically, this is where buyers tend to step back in.

UBS reiterates ‘buy’ rating on McDonald’s stock

Investors should also note that Wall Street analysts have similar expectations heading into MCD’s first-quarter earnings on May 7^th.

Earlier this week, UBS analysts led by Dennis Geiger maintained their “buy” rating on the NYSE-listed firm, with a $365 price target indicating potential upside of more than 28% from here.

In his research note, Geiger said the “risk-reward for McDonald’s shares is attractive despite near-term pressures”.

While investors have expressed concern over slowing US sales and global conflicts, UBS believes MCD is strongly positioned to capture market share through its new “3 for 3” strategy focusing on value, marketing, and menu innovation.

McDonald’s “defensive characteristics should provide earnings stability in a still volatile environment,” the analyst concluded.

What could drive MCD shares higher in 2026?

To counter the “macroeconomic pressures” squeezing lower-income consumers, McDonald’s has leaned heavily into affordability and pop-culture relevance.

The April launch of the “McValue 2.0” menu – which offers ten items under $3 alongside bundled meal deals- is expected to “further resonate with customers” in key markets.

Dennis Geiger also pointed to MCD’s creative flair, particularly its menu collaboration with the hit Netflix series KPop Demon Hunters, as a near-term catalyst.

“Solid execution on key sales plans will continue, w/value, marketing, and menu innovation likely to further resonate globally with customers, including in the US,” he wrote.

All in all, by blending rock-bottom pricing with high-energy marketing, MCD stock aims to prove that even in a tough economy, the world is still lovin' it.