Gold jumps above $4000, but traders still refuse to chase the rally

Gold’s rebound has not fully changed the argument around bullion.

The metal is back above the $4,000 line after softer US data knocked the dollar lower, but the market is still reluctant to chase prices higher before the official jobs report.

Traders are weighing two competing signals: a cooling labour market that helps gold, and a Federal Reserve that remains unwilling to declare victory on inflation.

Add fragile US-Iran diplomacy and another Russian strike on Kyiv, and the trade looks more like caution than conviction.

Softer data gives bullion some breathing room

Spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,057.92 an ounce in Asian trade on Thursday, extending its recovery after a volatile session the previous day.

US gold futures were softer, slipping 0.3% to $4,070.10, showing that the rebound is still uneven.

The immediate support came from the dollar. ADP data showed US private employers added 98,000 jobs in June, below expectations and down from 122,000 in May.

Manufacturing also cooled, with the ISM index easing to 53.3 from 54.

The prices-paid gauge dropped sharply, a useful signal for investors worried that energy and supply costs would keep inflation sticky.

For gold, that combination matters.

Softer hiring and lower input-price pressure reduce the case for aggressive tightening, while a weaker dollar makes bullion cheaper for non-US buyers.

The Fed trade has not gone away

The problem for gold bulls is that the Fed story has not turned dovish. Rate markets still see a meaningful chance of a September hike and an even higher probability of a move by year-end.

That keeps a ceiling over a non-yielding asset such as bullion.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did little to invite speculation about easier policy at the ECB’s Sintra forum.

His message was that inflation risks have eased, but the central bank remains committed to its 2% target and will not loosen policy simply because markets or the White House want relief.

Analysts see that stance as a reason to treat gold’s bounce carefully until the jobs data confirms a softer trend.

Geopolitics keeps the haven bid alive

The geopolitical backdrop is still supportive, though not enough to dominate the rate story. US-Iran talks in Doha ended without a final settlement, even as Qatar signalled some progress.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the market’s main pressure point because renewed tension could feed back into oil and inflation.

Russia’s overnight missile and drone attack on Kyiv added another layer of haven demand.

Still, gold needs a stronger catalyst to extend gains. On the chart, resistance sits near the $4,112 area, followed by the 100-period moving average around $4,145.

Support is near $4,047, with a deeper floor around $3,943. Unless the NFP report weakens the dollar further, rallies may remain vulnerable to selling.