CAT-aksjen opp 9% etter resultatoverraskelse og oppjustert omsetningsutsikt

AI-sentiment: 86/100 Bullish
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Kjøp CAT. Resultatslakt pluss en oppjustert helårsomsetningsutsikt (vekst i midten til høye tenårprosent) bekrefter at AI-drevet etterspørsel etter kraftutstyr er reell, ikke bare hype. Power & Energy-segmentet akselererer (opp 17 % år/år) med datasentermotorer/turbiner, mens byggeaktiviteten viser sterk moment (bygginntekter +35 %, ordrebok $72.1B, nye ordre $9.4B). Redusert utsikt for tollkostnader ($2.2B) støtter marginene.
Nøkkelrisiko: At AI- og datasenterkapitalutgifter bremser kraftig og at power-ordrer faller bort, noe som tvinger CAT til å nedjustere sine utsikter.
Kjøp Vertiv. CATs oppsving signaliserer at datasenterutbyggingen fortsatt akselererer; det øker vanligvis etterspørselen etter strøm-/termisk infrastruktur som Vertiv leverer til de samme anleggene. Hvis CATs etterspørsel etter kraftutstyr øker, bør Vertivs ordreinngang og kapasitetsutnyttelse bedre seg etter hvert som flere rack og strømsystemer installeres.
Nøkkelrisiko: At datasenterkunder stopper investeringer eller bytter til billigere leverandører, noe som kan føre til at Vertivs ordreinngang skuffer til tross for CATs styrke.
- Caterpillar oppjusterte prognosen for helårets omsetningsvekst; rapporterte Q2-salg på $20B.
- Selskapet slo også Q2-inntjeningsanslagene.
- Power & Energy-salget øker 17 %, ledet av etterspørsel fra datasenterapplikasjoner.
Caterpillar CAT shares climbed more than 9% in premarket trading on Tuesday after the construction and mining equipment maker raised its full-year revenue forecast, and beat second-quarter earnings estimates as its power segment continues to benefit from rising data center spending.
The company now expects full-year revenue to grow in the mid-to-high teens percentage range, an improvement from its previous outlook for low-double-digit growth.
It also reduced its projected tariff-related costs for the year to about $2.2 billion, compared with its earlier estimate of between $2.2 billion and $2.6 billion.
Adjusted earnings came in at $8.17 per share for the quarter, comfortably ahead of analysts' expectations of $6.20 per share compiled by LSEG.
The company had earned $4.72 per share in the same period a year earlier.
Revenue for the April-June quarter rose 24% year over year to a record $20.5 billion, marking the first time in Caterpillar's history that quarterly sales exceeded the $20 billion mark.
"This is the first time in company history that we have generated over $20 billion in sales and revenues in a single quarter," Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Joe Creed said.
AI infrastructure fuels equipment demand
The company's results underscore how the global artificial intelligence boom continues to reshape demand across industrial sectors beyond semiconductor manufacturers.
Power & Energy sales increased 17% year over year to $8.238 billion from $7.037 billion.
Within that segment, the company reported higher sales of large reciprocating engines as well as turbines and related services, primarily for data center applications.
Over recent quarters, Caterpillar has benefited from surging demand for both construction machinery used to build data centers and power-generation equipment needed to support those facilities.
Infrastructure spending boosts construction business
Beyond AI infrastructure, Caterpillar also continued to benefit from increased infrastructure and energy spending in the United States.
The company said strong commercial construction activity, including projects linked to data centers, combined with infrastructure investments under President Donald Trump's administration, helped drive order growth.
Its core construction industries segment posted a 35% increase in revenue during the quarter, led by a 50% jump in North American sales.
During the quarter, Caterpillar booked $9.4 billion in new orders, lifting its order backlog to a record $72.1 billion.
"Strong order rates and a growing backlog reflect broadening momentum across all three of our primary segments," Creed said.
Analysts see AI opportunity expanding
The latest results come despite recent volatility across AI-linked stocks as investors questioned whether the pace of artificial intelligence spending could be sustained.
Caterpillar and other suppliers of power equipment for data centers, including Vertiv Holdings and GE Vernova, have experienced share price weakness in recent weeks amid broader concerns over AI capital expenditure.
However, analysts continue to view Caterpillar as a long-term beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout.
Gimme Credit analyst Carol Levenson said earlier that Caterpillar's Power & Energy division "is becoming increasingly dominant as demand for its large reciprocating engines and turbines swells with data-center/AI capital spending."
Analyst Semenuk has also argued that the growth opportunity remains in its early stages and believes Caterpillar could generate at least $10 in quarterly earnings per share by 2029.
The company's shares have already reflected growing optimism around that outlook.
Caterpillar stock crossed the $1,000 mark in June and remains up about 40% so far this year.
JPMorgan too sees the stock as a premier cyclical and industrial play.
JPMorgan experts recently said that CAT’s exceptionally solid balance sheet and pricing power allow the manufacturer to preserve operating margins even during broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

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