SOL eyes $94 despite mixed ETF, derivatives activity

The cryptocurrency market has begun the new week positively after a bearish weekend.

Bitcoin is trading above $68,000, up nearly 1% in the last 24 hours.

Solana’s SOL is up nearly 2% at press time on Monday, and could rally higher in the near term.

The coin could stage a minor recovery after four consecutive days of losses.

The positive performance comes as institutional confidence in Solana remains mixed.

Solana ETFs experienced two consecutive daily outflows last week to cap the weekly net inflow at $24 million. 

Derivatives data also shows that retail demand is increasing in the near term.

Technical indicators suggest that SOL could rally higher over the next few hours or days.

Retail demand could push SOL’s price higher

SOL is up by 1.4% in the last 24 hours, making it the second-best performer in the top 10, behind Ether. 

Its positive performance comes despite mixed institutional demand for Solana ETFs.

The US spot Solana Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) hold roughly $800 million in SOL as of Friday. 

Institutions continue to push funds into Solana ETFs despite Solana losing 65% of its market cap over thelast six months.

The ETFs recorded just two weekly net outflows, totaling roughly $11 million.

Thanks to last week’s data, the cumulative net inflow now stands at $957 million.

However, the consecutive outflows at the end of last week were $5.23 million and $8.23 million, limiting the weekly inflow to $24.05 million. 

The outflows resulted from the rising downside pressure on the broader cryptocurrency market due to the ongoing US-Iran war and rising oil prices.

If the institutions continue pushing funds into Solana ETFs, SOL could rally towards the $100 in the near term. 

Furthermore, retail interest in Solana has been increasing in recent weeks.

According to CoinGlass, the SOL Open Interest (OI) stands at $5.08 billion, up 1% in the last 24 hours, indicating increased leverage exposure as risk-on sentiment resurfaces.

Furthermore, the funding rate increased to -0.0006%, from -0.0161% on Sunday, suggesting reduced incentive for traders holding bearish positions.

Technical outlook: SOL eyes the $94 resistance zone

The SOL/USD 4-hour chart is bearish despite its positive performance since Sunday.

It is currently trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reaffirming the bearish bias. 

Currently, Solana faces an upside resistance at $92.11, with short orders currently increasing around the 50-day EMA at $95.82. 

If the bulls push SOL’s price above the 50-day EMA, the coin could extend its recovery above the $100 psychological level, with the 100-day EMA at $112.80 also a target.

The technical indicators on the daily chart suggest that buyers are struggling to build upside momentum. 

Currently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above its signal line, indicating a short-term bullish bias.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 48, reversing from the oversold region as buyers struggle for control.

However, if the recovery fails, SOL may retest the initial support at $78.35.

This level remains the last line of defense before the February 6 low of $67.50 comes into play.