Qualcomm stock price at risk of a crash despite OpenAI partnership rumors

Qualcomm stock price surged by over 12% on Monday as investors cheered a potential partnership with OpenAI ahead of its much-anticipated financial results on Wednesday this week. QCOM jumped to $160, its highest point since January 2026 and 29% above its lowest level this year.

Qualcomm partnership with OpenAI

The QCOM stock price soared after a report by TF International said that the company was considering teaming up with OpenAI to build smartphone processors. If the deal works out, it will also involve MediaTek and Luxshare.

This report cited Ming-Chi Kuo, a top analyst who is known for his accuracy when covering technology companies. In a statement, he said:

"Only by fully controlling both the operating system and hardware can OpenAI deliver a comprehensive AI agent service.”

While such a deal will be bullish for Qualcomm, it is hard to understand how it will benefit OpenAI as the smartphone chip industry is already mature. It is now dominated by Apple, which makes its own chips, Qualcomm, and Samsung.

READ MORE: Is Qualcomm stock finally ready to break out of its 18-month slump?

Qualcomm to publish earnings on Wednesday

The new reporting comes as Qualcomm is set to publish its financial results on Wednesday. Its most recent first quarter results showed that its slow revenue growth continued. 

Its revenue grew by 5% in the quarter to a record $12.3 billon, with its Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT)  business making over $10 billion. Its QTL business made $1.6 billion, which was at its upper side of the guidance.

Wall Street analysts predict that its revenue dropped by 2.36% in the last quarter to $10.6 billion amid the memory shortage. Similarly, the earnings per share (EPS) is expected to drop from $2.85 to $2.56. 

The company, unlike other top semiconductor companies, is not experiencing strong double digit growth rates despite some major tailwinds. For example, it has already reached major deals with companies like Asus, Lenovo, and Microsoft for its AI laptop chips.

It now hopes that its recent acquisitions, including Alphawave and Ventano Micro Systems will help to supercharge its growth in the long term.

This slow growth is reflected in its valuation as the company has  a forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13, much lower than the sector median of 24. Its forward EV to EBITDA ratio of 10 is also lower than the sector median of 13.

Qualcomm stock price technical analysis

QCOM stock chart | Source: TradingView 

The daily timeframe chart shows that the QCOM stock price surged to a high of $160 as investors reacted to the news on its OpenAI partnership. It then pulled back to $149 as investors assessed the impact of this deal on its business.

Its intraday high was near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The stock has also moved slightly above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).

The risk, however, is that the stock will attempt to fill the gap formed on Thursday when it jumped by double digits. Therefore, the stock may resume the downward trend, potentially to the key support at $135.