Ethereum price risks drop as bearish pennant puts $1,800 in focus

Ethereum price has continued struggling to build momentum above the $2,000 level after repeated rejection near major resistance zones, while analysts have warned that another wave of selling could drag ETH toward the $1,800 region if current support levels fail.

According to data from Coingecko, Ether traded near $2,066 on Wednesday after spending several weeks moving sideways just above the psychological $2,000 support area. 

Price action has remained weak since ETH failed to reclaim the 200-week simple moving average near $2,470 earlier this year, with traders showing caution as ETF demand softened and momentum across major altcoins weakened.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez said Ethereum still needs to reclaim the 200-week SMA near $2,500 before any sustained bullish structure can return.

Martinez added that ETH would also need a clean move above the 50-week SMA around $3,100 to break out of the multi-year range that has capped price action since 2021.

In a recent report, Martinez identified $1,850 as Ethereum’s most important support zone. 

According to the analyst, a weekly close below that level could open the door for a move toward $1,560, followed by a possible revisit of the lower boundary of Ethereum’s long-running range near $1,070.

In a separate post, Martinez also pointed to Ethereum’s 0.8 Market Value to Realized Value pricing band around $1,850, describing it as a historically important accumulation area where ETH has previously established macro bottoms before entering new bullish cycles.

Pressure on Ethereum has also come from weakening activity across decentralized finance markets.

According to data published by CryptoRank, Ethereum’s total value locked had fallen to nearly $116 billion, down 55% from the August 2025 peak of $258 billion. 

CryptoRank noted that liquidity declines across layer 2 networks such as Arbitrum, zkSync, and Linea pointed to rising capital fragmentation across Ethereum’s ecosystem.

Derivatives positioning has also weakened in recent weeks.

CoinGlass data showed Ethereum open interest falling from local highs reached earlier this quarter as leveraged traders reduced exposure after several failed breakout attempts above $2,400. 

Funding rates across perpetual futures markets have remained mostly neutral to slightly negative, signaling limited conviction among aggressive bullish traders.

Outside crypto markets, macroeconomic conditions have continued weighing on speculative assets. 

Traders have remained focused on US inflation data, Treasury yields, labor market reports, and Federal Reserve policy expectations as higher interest rates continued limiting risk appetite across technology-linked crypto sectors, including Ethereum and AI-related tokens.

Simultaneously, energy markets have also contributed to the marketwide risk-off sentiment. 

Volatility in Brent crude prices tied to Middle East shipping tensions and developments around the Strait of Hormuz are currently keeping trades on edge.

Ethereum price analysis

On the daily chart, Ethereum has continued trading below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, a structure that has kept medium and long-term momentum tilted to the downside.

The 20-day EMA near $2,162 has acted as immediate resistance, while the 200-day EMA near $2,519 remains the key level bulls need to reclaim to improve sentiment.

The Relative Strength Index on the daily timeframe has hovered near 36, showing weak buying strength without yet entering deeply oversold territory. 

Recent candles have also shown repeated rejection during recovery attempts above the $2,200 area, suggesting sellers remain active on short-term rallies.

If Ethereum loses support near $2,000, the next downside zones identified by analysts and liquidation maps sit around $1,900 and $1,800. 

A recovery above $2,250 could ease some immediate pressure and potentially trigger liquidations from overleveraged short positions toward the $2,400 to $2,500 region.

Bear pennant pattern keeps downside risks in focus

At the same time, Ethereum has continued navigating a bearish pennant structure that formed after ETH lost momentum from multi-month highs above $2,400 earlier this year.

The bearish pennant pattern identified on the daily chart has developed following a sharp decline and a tightening consolidation range between converging trend lines. 

If ETH breaks below the lower boundary near $2,060, technical projections from the pattern point toward a downside target near $1,800.

Ethereum has also broken below an ascending trend line that has supported price action since February, according to analyst Chain Mind, who warned in a recent video that failure to reclaim that level could send ETH below $1,800.

Other crypto analysts warned that a break below $2,050 would increase the probability of Ethereum revisiting the $1,800 support zone.