Can Bitcoin break $70,000 after muted reaction to Iran ceasefire?

Bitcoin briefly climbed above $67,000 late Monday before slipping back under $66,800, highlighting the market’s cautious response to improving geopolitical headlines that have boosted other risk assets. 

The world’s largest cryptocurrency is trading at $66,720 on Tuesday, up 1% over 24 hours and 5.8% on the week.

It reached an intraday high of $67,217 before losing momentum. 

Macro markets rally on Iran ceasefire progress

Broader markets reacted more decisively to developments in the Iran conflict.

President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance signed an electronic memorandum of understanding with Iran, with Trump stating that the Strait of Hormuz—already partially reopened—would fully reopen by Friday.

The news triggered a sharp decline in oil prices, with Brent crude falling below $83 per barrel after its steepest drop in more than two weeks.

Equities also rallied, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 climbing 3.1%.

Despite this risk-on backdrop, Bitcoin’s reaction remained muted compared to traditional markets.

Market participants say Bitcoin’s hesitation reflects uncertainty over whether the geopolitical improvement will hold.

Jimmy Xue, co-founder and COO of Axis, noted that the rally is a relief move that the market hasn't fully bought yet, rather than a clear risk-on redeployment into Bitcoin

The analysts added that this is the third attempted truce in the region, with previous ceasefire rallies in April and June ultimately reversing when tensions resumed. 

Trump also suggested the deal could be revoked if Iran fails to agree to shut down its nuclear program.

Traders are now reportedly waiting for a scheduled June 19 signing in Switzerland before treating the agreement as durable.

Part of Bitcoin’s restrained reaction may also reflect recent institutional flows.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded four consecutive weeks of outflows totaling roughly US$5.4 billion (approx. $9.5 billion), including a single record week of about US$3.4 billion (approx. $6 billion). 

In addition to this, Bitcoin ETFs recorded an outflow of $64.80 million on Monday, suggesting that institutions are yet to resume their Bitcoin accumulation. 

The absence of consistent institutional demand continues to limit upside momentum for the leading cryptocurrency. 

Will Bitcoin reclaim the $70,000 level soon?

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart remains bullish and efficient as the broader cryptocurrency market maintains the uptrend.

At press time, Bitcoin is trading above the $66,000 level. The momentum indicators suggest that the bulls are still in control.

Despite the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to 64 from 71 on Monday, the indicator maintains a bullish bias.

The MACD lines are also within the positive territory, adding further confluence to the bullish bias.

If the rally resumes, Bitcoin could surge past Monday’s high of $67,300 and hit the first major resistance level at $68,003.

A daily candle close above this level could allow BTC to hit the $70,000 level for the first time in two weeks.

However, if the market correction persists, Bitcoin could retest the first major support level at $63,707.

This support level is also a 4-hour Transactional Liquidity (TLQ) zone, indicating a possible reversal point.