Cardano’s bearish pressure persists amid weak derivatives and on-chain data

Cardano ADA continued its downward trajectory on Friday, trading below $0.165 and posting losses of more than 2% in the last 24 hours. 

The cryptocurrency remains under pressure, as weakening derivatives activity and negative on-chain indicators suggest further downside in the near term.

Bearish derivatives data reflect growing market caution

Market sentiment surrounding Cardano remains fragile, with derivatives metrics highlighting a growing bearish bias among traders.

According to CoinGlass data, ADA’s long-to-short ratio fell to 0.96 on Friday, approaching its lowest level in over a month. 

A ratio below 1 indicates that short positions outweigh long positions, suggesting that a majority of traders are positioning for additional price declines.

Further reinforcing the negative outlook, Cardano’s futures Open Interest (OI) declined to $348 million. 

Although OI experienced a modest recovery in mid-June, it has generally trended lower since mid-May. 

Falling Open Interest typically signals reduced investor participation and weaker conviction, often accompanying bearish market conditions.

On-chain metrics also paint a challenging picture for Cardano. Data from Santiment shows that Cardano’s Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) indicator plunged sharply on Wednesday, indicating that investors were locking in losses rather than profits. 

Such activity is commonly associated with panic selling and market capitulation, reflecting a deterioration in short-term sentiment.

However, capitulation phases can sometimes signal that selling pressure is nearing exhaustion.

A similar pattern emerged during the market downturn in mid-April, when ADA eventually staged a modest recovery after a wave of loss realization subsided. 

A sustained rebound would still require renewed buying interest to offset the prevailing bearish momentum.

Cardano price outlook: ADA remains below key moving averages

The ADA/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish as Cardano’s price action is in a downtrend. 

ADA is currently trading around $0.160, well below its major moving averages, including the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are positioned between approximately $0.210 and $0.320.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is hovering near 40, just below the neutral territory.

This indicates that the bears are still in control of the market. 

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned slightly positive.

Although this could indicate fading downside momentum, it falls short of confirming a bullish shift in market structure.

If the bulls regain control and attempt a recovery, the first significant resistance level lies near $0.181. Additional resistance levels are located at $0.202 and the 50-day EMA near $0.210.

Beyond these levels, a major resistance zone emerges between $0.218 and $0.245, where several technical barriers converge. 

However, if the bearish trend persists, immediate support rests at the June 6 low near $0.148. 

A decisive break below this level could open the door to deeper losses and push Cardano into fresh bearish territory.