Viasat stock jumps as Space Force wins fuel bullish analyst outlook

Viasat shares VSAT surged 10% on Tuesday, extending Monday's 23% rally as investors continued to react to a series of defense contract wins, growing optimism in the satellite sector, and a bullish analyst outlook.

The stock has drawn increased attention following multiple US Space Force awards that strengthen its position in secure satellite communications.

Investors also welcomed positive analyst commentary highlighting the company's spectrum assets and long-term growth prospects.

Broader enthusiasm across the satellite industry following Rocket Lab's agreement to acquire Iridium Communications also contributed to the recent gains.

Space Force awards strengthen defense business

A key catalyst for the rally was Viasat's progress in the US Space Force's Protected Tactical SATCOM-Global (PTS-G) program.

The company advanced from the design phase to a prime contract to build, launch, and deliver the first maneuverable geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) satellite under the program.

The transition from designing to a full build-and-launch contract provides greater long-term revenue visibility through a multi-year backlog.

Viasat also secured part of a US$437.7 million (approx. $766 million) US Space Force contract to deliver the first two operational anti-jam PTS-G satellites for the Swarm 1 constellation.

The award covers manufacturing, launch, and on-orbit checkout of the satellites.

The company also expanded its government business beyond defense after being selected by Lockheed Martin to provide high-bandwidth satellite connectivity for NOAA's next-generation C-130J Hurricane Hunter aircraft.

The program initially covers two aircraft and includes options for additional planes, with service targeted to begin around 2030.

Analysts highlight spectrum assets and growth potential

Oppenheimer initiated coverage on Viasat with an Outperform rating and a $140 price target.

Analyst Timothy Horan described the company as “the last major global satellite spectrum play left.”

According to Horan, Viasat's globally harmonized spectrum holdings position the company to benefit from the growing direct-to-device (D2D) communications market.

He estimates the spectrum assets alone are worth roughly US$15 billion (approx. $26.3 billion) on a conservative basis and noted that recent industry transactions suggest they could ultimately command a higher valuation.

Horan also expects Viasat's core business to reach a free cash flow inflection point and values that business at more than US$10 billion (approx. $17.5 billion).

The bullish view follows several other positive analyst updates in recent months.

B. Riley raised its price target to $106 from $94 while maintaining a Buy rating in May.

Deutsche Bank reiterated its Buy rating with a $97 target in June, and Raymond James assigned an Outperform rating with a $74 target. Barclays remains more cautious, maintaining a $49 price target.

Satellite sector optimism supports shares

The recent rally also coincided with renewed investor interest in satellite companies after Rocket Lab announced an agreement to acquire Iridium Communications in an US$8 billion (approx. $14 billion) cash-and-stock transaction.

Under the agreement, Iridium shareholders will receive $54 per share in a combination of cash and stock.

The deal, which is expected to close in mid-2027 pending regulatory approvals, combines Rocket Lab's launch and satellite manufacturing operations with Iridium's low Earth orbit satellite constellation and spectrum assets.

Earlier this year, Viasat successfully launched its ViaSat-3 F3 satellite aboard a SpaceX rocket.

The satellite is expected to begin service in the Asia-Pacific region later this year, while ViaSat-3 F2 is also nearing commercial service, significantly expanding the company's global network capacity.