Gold slips after 2% surge as traders brace for inflation’s next surprise

Gold retreated on Wednesday as the market’s brief celebration of softer US inflation gave way to a more uncomfortable question: whether another oil shock will keep price pressures alive.

Spot bullion fell 0.5% to $4,035.67 an ounce by 0300 GMT, while August futures slipped 0.7% to $4,042.20.

The decline erased part of Tuesday’s jump of more than 2%, when gold reached $4,100.49 after June consumer prices surprised on the downside.

Bullion is now being pulled between easing near-term rate fears and the prospect that renewed Middle East fighting will lift energy costs again.

Oil shock dilutes the CPI relief

US consumer prices fell 0.4% in June, the first monthly decline since April 2020, while annual inflation slowed to 3.5%.

Core inflation eased to 2.6%, prompting traders to reduce expectations for an immediate Federal Reserve rate increase.

The data initially pushed gold sharply higher, but investors are already looking beyond a report that captured energy prices before the latest escalation.

Brent crude rose for a third session on Wednesday, gaining 1.2% to $85.72 a barrel, after the US reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports and both sides exchanged fresh strikes.

OANDA strategist said the oil rally had made the CPI reading look increasingly backward-looking.

Higher crude prices can feed through to transport and production costs, raising the risk that the Fed keeps policy restrictive even as headline inflation cools.

Fed repricing offers only partial support

Rate markets have become less hawkish, but they have not abandoned the prospect of further tightening.

Traders now assign about a 58% probability to a September increase, down from 76% before the CPI report, while the chance of a move by December remains near 80%.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee welcomed the improvement in inflation but signalled that one favourable month was not enough.

Warsh said policymakers still had work to do, while Goolsbee wanted several more months of easing before drawing firm conclusions.

That caution limits the benefit for gold.

Lower rate expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, but persistent inflation risks can lift Treasury yields and support the dollar, offsetting demand for defensive assets.

The $4,000 level becomes the next test

The immediate technical battle is centred on the $4,000 threshold, which held during Monday’s sell-off and underpinned Tuesday’s rebound.

A decisive break below that level could expose the late-June lows, while renewed buying would need to clear $4,100 to restore upward momentum.

The June Producer Price Index, due at 8:30 am in Washington, will offer the next reading on pipeline inflation.

A softer report could steady bullion, although traders may continue to treat older price data cautiously while oil remains elevated.

Silver fell 0.3% to $58.48 an ounce. Platinum gained 0.2% to $1,635.56, while palladium edged 0.2% higher to $1,307.11.