Here’s why Donald Trump paused his attacks against Iran

President Donald Trump paused his attacks against Iran after 13 consecutive days of intense strikes as top advisors warned about the fading stockpiles of key defense munitions and the impact of the strikes on pushing Iranians back to the negotiating table.

Trump has paused his attacks against Iran

According to Axios, Trump ordered the military not to conduct strikes, reflecting his willingness to provide space for diplomacy. Trump is also slowly recognizing that the return to major combat operations had reached the limit of its effectiveness.

Another report by the NYT noted that Trump decided to pause his attacks after top military officials warned that the US was running dangerously low on air defenses as Iran intensifies its attacks. 

The low stockpiles have been a concern even before when the war started, with General Dan Caine being the most vocal. These stockpiles have dropped sharply in the past few years as the US has boosted its supplies to Ukraine. Trump also spent this equipment in his war against Ansar Allah.

The NYT also noted that Trump was disappointed that his attacks against Iran have not deterred Iran. A recent WSJ report said that Trump has grown angry at Iranians for not capitulating, even after his threats to bomb key infrastructure projects like bridges and power plants. The paper added that he was in a revenge mode.

In a statement to the NYT, Steven Cheung, a White House official, said that Trump has:

“always been consistent in saying he prefers a diplomatic solution, but he continues to retain all options if Iran continues terrorist activities in the Strait of Hormuz or against allies.”

Trump is concerned about the bond market and his approval rating

Trump is also worried about other things, including his falling approval rating. A recent poll showed that his rating, even among MAGA supporters, continued falling as the midterm elections near. 

Additionally, he is worried about the energy markets, where crude oil prices have jumped by over 20% from the lowest level this month. Brent briefly jumped above $100 for the first time in over a month, which will drag inflation higher in the coming months. As a result, the Federal Reserve may struggle to cut interest rates this year.

Trump has always been concerned about the bond market. The 30-year yield has remained above 5% since July 6 and is now nearing its highest point this year. Similarly, the two-year and one-year yields have been in a strong uptrend in the past few months.

Top analysts believe that Trump is trapped in Iran, a country that has proven to be a formidable rival. Iran knows that it cannot win a conventional war against the United States. As a result, it has focused on destroying key US infrastructure in the region. It has bombed several helicopters, drones, and storage facilities in the past few weeks.

In a recent note, the WSJ noted that Iran had adapted to US attacks. It has buried its weapons deep underground and is now using some of the most advanced missiles to hit US targets.

Trump has no easy way out. Ending the war now will leave Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz and with more power. Continuing the battle will push oil prices higher and not achieve any strategic goals.