S&P 500 year-end prediction: Evercore ISI now sees 9,000 as realistic

The 2026 stock market rally continues to defy gravity, steamrolling through macro challenges and driving Wall Street indices into record territory.

Still, Evercore ISI strategists led by Julian Emanuel believe the S&P 500 surge is not out of juice just yet; in fact, he believes the current multi-year bull run has “ample” runway remaining.

In a research report on Monday, Emanuel said the benchmark index could hit 9,000 by the end of this year, indicating potential for another 15% rally from current levels.

Why does Evercore ISI see further upside ahead?

According to Julian Emmanuel, the primary catalyst for an extended rally lies in what is currently missing from the economic background.

Historically, structural bull markets meet their demise under “specific conditions” – an impending recession, an abrupt increase in long-end bond yields, or unhinged speculative mania across capital markets.

Emanuel argues that none of these late-cycle warning signs are present today.

Moderate interest rate expectations and strong corporate earnings – particularly across technology and semiconductor supply chains – continue to provide a resilient foundation for stock valuations.

Instead of exhaustion, the market setup is suitable for a classic FOMO-driven overshoot. Investors, eager to capture upside in an environment where cash yields are slowly diminishing, are leaning into stock derivatives.

Heightened call option appetite creates a “self-reinforcing upward loop” – as market participants purchase upside call contracts, market makers are forced to buy underlying equities to maintain delta-neutral hedges.

This accelerates momentum, propelling index levels beyond standard fundamental models.

Emanuel emphasized that the transformative AI surge of the 2020s has yet to reach the duration or valuation peaks seen in historical innovation booms, such as the 1920s electrification movement or the 1990s internet expansion.

With corporate balance sheets showing disciplined leverage, the financial system overall remains equipped to absorb further expansion, he argued.

Why else is Evercore ISI bullish on the S&P 500 index

The second pillar supporting Evercore’s bold target is the sophisticated posture of modern market participants.

Unlike the late 1990s dot-com bubble – where capital indiscriminately chased a narrow basket of unproven internet stocks, institutional portfolios in 2026 are demonstrating remarkable structural diversification.

Emanuel highlighted that a record 121 stocks have migrated to Evercore’s “Negative Beta” tracking list – names exhibiting an inverse statistical correlation to the S&P 500 over a trailing six-month window.

Prominent names on this list include defensive heavyweights and non-tech leaders like PepsiCo, McDonald’s, Kinder Morgan, CoStar, and Gartner.

The record expansion of this group suggests asset managers are actively running a barbell strategy: holding high-growth generative AI leaders on one side while maintaining robust allocation to low-correlation, steady-cash-flow stocks on the other.

Having digested the historical lessons of previous market crashes, institutional desks are managing risk dynamically at record index highs rather than engaging in concentrated, unhedged speculation.