Can Ethereum price reclaim $2,500 as ETF demand battles profit-taking?

Ethereum has slipped 0.1% over the past 24 hours to around $2,485, while more than $1 billion of recent US spot Ethereum ETF inflows have so far failed to push the token sustainably above $2,500.

According to Coingecko, ETH was trading at $2,485.53 on Aug. 28, after the price moved as high as roughly $2,555 over the past 24 hours before sellers pulled it back below $2,500.

As of press time, the token remained up 6.2% over seven days and 32.1% over 14 days, keeping much of the recovery from its August lows intact.

US spot Ethereum ETFs have provided one of the main sources of demand behind the recovery.

Per SoSoValue data, the funds recorded an eighth consecutive session of net inflows on Wednesday, adding roughly $192 million and taking the streak above $1 billion.

Demand from the funds has come after ETH rebounded more than 30% from levels around $1,800 earlier in August.

The move carried Ethereum to approximately $2,545 on Aug. 21, but repeated attempts to establish a price above the $2,500 to $2,550 area have since drawn selling.

Profit-taking has limited each attempt to extend the rally, with holders who bought during the August decline sitting on sizeable short-term gains.

The repeated rejection does not coincide with a collapse in institutional demand, as the ETF inflow streak continued while ETH struggled around resistance.

Futures positioning has also changed since the first leg of the recovery.

Roughly 500,000 ETH of open interest was removed during the week, reducing some of the forced buying that had helped the initial rally as bearish positions were closed or liquidated.

At the same time, positive funding rates showed leveraged traders were still positioned towards the long side.

On the 48-hour Binance ETH/USDT liquidation heatmap, one of the strongest concentrations of upside liquidity was visible around $2,545 to $2,555, with more clusters extending towards $2,575 and $2,600.

See below:

Ethereum 48-hour liquidation heatmap. Source: Coinglass.

Bitcoin has provided some support to the crypto market after moving above $80,000, though its own volatility around the $78,000 to $81,000 area has kept ETH without a sustained market-wide push through resistance.

At the same time, Investors are waiting for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Aug. 28 after July headline PCE inflation reached 3.7% year over year.

Core PCE stood at 3.3%, while the US 10-year Treasury yield remained around 4.65%.

ETH price action

On the daily chart, ETH is trading around $2,487 and remains above all four major exponential moving averages. See below.

ETH/USDT 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView.

The 20-day EMA sits at $2,248, followed by the 200-day EMA at $2,154, the 50-day EMA at $2,061 and the 100-day EMA at $2,014.

The positioning above these averages keeps the August recovery intact despite repeated failures around $2,500. 

Chaikin Money Flow also remains positive at 0.22, showing that buying pressure has persisted even as ETH struggles to extend the rally.

Shorter-term price action presents a more immediate test.

On the 4-hour chart, ETH is sitting close to the Keltner Channel midline at $2,480, with the upper boundary at $2,561 and the lower boundary near $2,399.

Holding above $2,480 would leave ETH in position for another attempt to reclaim $2,500. 

Beyond that level, the recent highs around $2,530 lead into a heavy concentration of short liquidation liquidity between $2,545 and $2,555, making the area a more important test for a sustained breakout.

A clean move through $2,555 could take ETH towards the upper Keltner boundary near $2,561. 

The liquidation heatmap shows additional liquidity between $2,575 and $2,600, providing the next potential targets if buying pressure strengthens.

On-Balance Volume on the 4-hour chart remains well above the levels seen before the August rally, but has flattened during the recent consolidation.

ETH/USDT 4-hour price chart. Source: TradingView.

An increase in OBV alongside a move through $2,500 would show fresh volume supporting the breakout, while continued sideways movement would leave the price vulnerable to another rejection.

On the downside, losing the Keltner midline near $2,480 would put the first liquidation cluster around $2,460 to $2,475 in play. 

Liquidity becomes denser again between $2,430 and $2,450, while a stronger correction could take ETH towards the lower Keltner boundary near $2,399.

On the daily timeframe, the 20-day EMA at $2,248 would become the next major dynamic support if ETH loses the shorter-term levels.