XRP subdued as weak retail demand persists: check forecast

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) are all up by less than 1% in the last 24 hours as the broader crypto market stabilizes following the rally on Tuesday. 

Ripple has defended the $1.32 support level after failing to take out the $1.40 resistance earlier this week. 

Geopolitics and weak retail demand keep XRP’s price low

The remittance token aligns with the broader crypto market’s outlook, which appears largely defined by increasing doubts over the United States (US) and Iran’s ceasefire deal.

While the ceasefire deal remains in place, it is edgy at the moment, with Iran still blocking passage through the Strait of Hormuz and US President Donald Trump warning that strikes will continue if Iran does not strike a deal.

The crypto market sentiment has significantly decreased since the war began in late February.

The Fear & Greed index, which reads 14 at the moment, shows that investors are still extremely cautious about the crypto market. 

In addition to the geopolitical tension in the Middle East, retail demand for XRP continues to decline.

The XRP futures Open Interest (OI), which reflects the value of outstanding futures and options contracts, reads $2.40 billion on Friday, unchanged from what was recorded on Thursday. 

If the weak demand persists, XRP will likely remain confined to the broader downtrend toward support at $1.30.

Technical outlook: XRP could dip lower

The XRP/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as XRP is currently trading at $1.34 per coin.

The pair remains under clear downside pressure, with price holding beneath the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1.42, $1.58, and $1.83, respectively.

The lowering EMAs keep the broader trend tilted to the downside despite the recent bounce. The momentum indicators also suggest that the bulls are yet to gain control of the market.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 54 on the 4-hour chart suggests only modest positive bias rather than outright overbought conditions.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is hovering just above the zero line, hinting at tentative recovery attempts that are still capped by a solid overhead structure.

If the market conditions improve, the bulls would likely experience initial resistance at the 50-day EMA around $1.42, with further hurdles at the 100-day EMA near $1.58 and the descending trendline break zone around $1.73.

A sustainable break above these levels would expose the 200-day EMA at $1.83, reinforcing a bullish bias in the near to medium term.

However, if the traders swing bearish, XRP may look to defend the recent swing lows at $1.30 and $1.28 in the coming hours or days.

Failure to defend these key levels would expose the February 6 swing low of $1.1.

The market conditions remain extremely fragile at the moment.

The outcome of the two-week ceasefire deal between the United States and Iran would play a key role in the market’s performance in the coming days and weeks.