Solana slips as Fed hike bets rise: could $90 become the next battleground?

Solana SOL has traded within a narrow range recently, with buyers defending the psychologically important $100 level ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision.

The broader economic backdrop remains challenging for cryptocurrencies, as US inflation is still nearly two percentage points above the central bank’s target. 

Although macroeconomic uncertainty has stalled the wider crypto rally, rising activity on the Solana network could be signaling a significant price move.

Fed rate-hike expectations pressure crypto market

The probability of a September interest-rate increase has risen to 70% from a recent low of 50%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Higher interest rates typically weigh on cryptocurrencies by tightening financial conditions and increasing the appeal of yield-bearing traditional assets. 

The US Treasury Department’s decision to triple its bond buybacks has done little to improve sentiment.

Against this uncertain backdrop, Solana has gained only 0.7% over the past seven days, reflecting the market’s cautious approach ahead of the Fed decision.

Santiment data shows that the number of daily active users on the Solana network has increased consistently since mid-August.

The rise followed the release of new cryptocurrency industry rules by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. 

The regulatory initiative supported market sentiment and may have encouraged users to increase their activity across the Solana ecosystem.

Growing daily activity can reflect stronger demand for decentralized applications, payments, and other on-chain services. However, it does not guarantee that SOL’s price will rise.

The 30-day and 50-day moving averages of Solana’s daily active-address metric are approaching a crossover.

During the previous five crossovers, SOL experienced substantial price movements in either direction. 

This historical pattern suggests volatility could increase, although the indicator does not determine which direction the next move will take.

The current market structure leans bullish after SOL broke above its 200-day exponential moving average. This could give buyers an advantage if activity continues rising.

However, a more hawkish-than-expected message from the Federal Reserve could invalidate the bullish setup and trigger a sharp decline.

Solana technical indicator: SOL slightly dips below the $100 Support

Solana’s daily chart remains bullish despite the cryptocurrency slipping below the $100 psychological level.

The repeated defense around this level suggests some investors are accumulating SOL in anticipation of another upward move. 

Reclaiming the $100 level would support the token’s near-term bullish structure and improve the likelihood of another test of higher resistance.

Momentum also continues to favor buyers, although it has weakened. The Relative Strength Index has fallen below 60, indicating that bullish pressure is moderating without turning decisively bearish.

Despite the support at $100, Solana could still fall toward $90 before resuming its broader uptrend, particularly if market liquidity weakens.

The $90 region represents an important support zone because it aligns with the 200-day EMA and an area that previously acted as resistance. This confluence could attract buyers during a deeper correction.

A decisive breakdown below $90 would weaken the bullish thesis and increase the possibility of further losses.

If Solana holds its key support levels and upward momentum returns, SOL could advance toward the short-term target of $120. That would represent potential upside of approximately 20% from the $100 area.