Buying Alphabet stock before Q1 earnings? Here's why you should think twice

Alphabet stock (NASDAQ: GOOG) heads into its first-quarter 2026 earnings report tonight with a lot of momentum already priced in.

The stock has climbed 21% over the past 30 days, and one recent preview warned that “investors shouldn’t expect the market to ignore any weakness” after that run-up.

That matters because the bar is high as current estimates put revenue near $106.9 billion, while earnings predictions are clustered in the low-to-mid-$2.60s per share, with some models closer to $2.73.

The earnings paradox

On the surface, Alphabet still looks like a growth story.

Revenue is expected to rise about 19% year over year, according to current consensus estimates.

But the profit picture is much less clean as MEXC puts EPS at $2.63, which would mark a 6.4% decline from a year earlier, while S&P Global says Visible Alpha consensus has moved up to $2.73 from $2.46 in the fall.

That spread alone tells you the market is still wrestling with how much AI spending will show up in margins versus growth.

S&P Global also says Google Cloud margin estimates for the quarter range from 11.6% to 34%, a huge gap for a business that investors are treating as the main earnings lever.

That uncertainty is not just theoretical, as Alphabet’s 2025 annual report says it spent $91.4 billion on capital expenditures last year and expects to significantly increase investment in 2026.

The substantial surge in capex comes as depreciation and other technical infrastructure costs are set to rise as AI workloads expand.

The depreciation has already increased 38% to $21.1 billion in 2025 and is expected to “meaningfully increase” again this year.

Zacks is blunt about the setup, calling Alphabet “risky for investors ahead of first-quarter 2026 results” and suggesting patience may be rewarded with “a more favorable entry point.”

Also read: Big Tech shifts to new energy sources amid AI expansion

Alphabet stock: The AI spending trap

Alphabet’s AI story is undeniably compelling.

In its fourth-quarter update, the company said Google Cloud was running at an annualized pace of more than $70 billion, with backlog rising to $240 billion.

That backlog sounds like visibility, but it also underscores how much of Alphabet’s near-term cash flow is being redirected into infrastructure before the payoff fully reaches earnings.

That is why valuation matters here.

Morningstar says Alphabet is “fairly valued” at current levels, with a $340 fair value estimate, which is a far cry from bargain territory.

And even bullish analysts are not ignoring the pressure.

Evercore ISI’s Mark Mahaney is keeping an Outperform rating and a $400 target, but still flags AI infrastructure costs as the swing factor.

What Options data reveal?

Options traders are bracing for a move of roughly 5.6% in either direction after the report.

The factor seems like a reminder that buying before earnings means accepting a large amount of event risk with no information edge.

Alphabet has already been trading near record highs, so even a modest disappointment could take a bigger bite out of near-term sentiment than investors expect.