Petróleo oscila com esperanças de diálogo EUA-Irã; riscos de oferta mantêm alta

US oil prices slid for a second consecutive day on Wednesday amid renewed optimism that peace talks between Washington and Iran could restart, potentially paving the way for the release of crucial supply currently held up by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

No entanto, os preços reverteram as perdas iniciais e negociavam em alta no momento da redação deste relatório.

O mercado permanece volátil enquanto investidores continuam a avaliar os desdobramentos no Oriente Médio.

Segundo especialistas, a situação de oferta no mercado de petróleo provavelmente se apertará ainda mais, o que pode impulsionar os preços novamente.

A guerra perturbou severamente o tráfego pelo Estreito de Hormuz, um canal vital para embarques de petróleo bruto e de produtos refinados do Golfo para destinos globais, particularmente na Ásia e na Europa.

O trânsito permanece precário apesar de um cessar‑fogo de duas semanas, com o número de embarcações que passam pelo estreito significativamente inferior aos aproximadamente 130 trânsitos reportados antes do conflito, segundo relatos de terça‑feira.

Enquanto isso, as discussões entre o presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump, e Teerã para encerrar a guerra estagnaram no fim de semana, embora Trump tenha indicado que as conversações podem recomeçar nesta semana.

No entanto, complicando o quadro, as forças armadas dos EUA confirmaram na quarta‑feira que um bloqueio naval imposto aos portos iranianos interrompeu completamente todo o comércio marítimo de entrada e saída do país.

Progresso diplomático enfraquece o 'prêmio de guerra' do petróleo

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was at $91.19 a barrel, down 0.1% from the previous close, while Brent oil was at $95.27 a barrel, up 0.5%.

According to Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, oil prices are likely to be influenced more significantly by diplomatic progress than by events on the battlefield.

She noted that "Markets are increasingly reacting to headlines around negotiations rather than troop deployments."

"Each signal of renewed dialogue has been met with price declines, suggesting that ‌traders are systematically unwinding the 'war premium' embedded into crude earlier this month."

A necessidade urgente de oferta alternativa de petróleo leva as refinarias a pagar prêmios mais altos por óleo de regiões como a US Gulf Coast e o North Sea.

This demand was highlighted on Tuesday when a cargo of WTI Midland, destined for Rotterdam, traded at a record premium of $22.80 a barrel over European benchmark prices.

Riscos crescentes do bloqueio

Separately, according to a Reuters report, a US official reported that an American destroyer prevented two oil tankers from departing Iran on the same day.

“There could even be a risk of renewed military escalation if the US were to prevent ships from entering or leaving Iran and Iran were to open fire in response,” Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said.

The market is facing a potential constraint on further oil supply.

This follows reports that the US will not extend a 30-day waiver on sanctions related to Iranian oil at sea, which is set to expire this week. 

Furthermore, a similar waiver on sanctions on Russian oil was allowed to quietly expire over the weekend.

Iran's oil exports have been significant recently, with March data from Kpler, an oil tanker tracking firm, showing 1.84 million barrels per day, and April figures so far at 1.71 million barrels per day. 

China has remained the primary purchaser.

Furthermore, a notable development occurred late last week: independent Chinese refineries are reportedly paying a premium for Iranian oil over Brent crude for the first time in several years.

India is also scheduled to receive its first oil shipment from Iran in seven years.