Corn price forecast as it enters the oversold zone

Corn price dropped lower on Monday to its lowest level in close to 10 months as favorable growing conditions and lower crude oil prices weigh on the market. Notably, it has been in the red for the past six consecutive weeks. Despite the expected corrective rebound, the bears are set to remain in control in the short term. 

Corn price hits a 10-month low on bearish drivers

Corn price extends losses from the previous week as renewed optimism over a US-Iran peace deal weighed on crude oil prices. On Monday, the US and Iran agreed to end the weekend fighting that was threatening to escalate. 

The MoU, which was signed earlier this month,  includes the reopening of the all-important Strait of Hormuz, sending global crude oil prices to a three-month low. On Monday, Brent oil plunged below the support at $74, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to $69, where it was before the war started.

Disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz, which the EIA termed as the largest in history, bolstered global oil prices to a 4-year high in early March. As oil prices entered the three-digit zone, the demand for alternative sources of fuel skyrocketed. With corn being a major source of biofuel, its demand surged with CBOT corn prices reaching an 11-month high. 

In addition to the plunge in crude oil prices, corn prices are under selling pressure from the favorable weather conditions in the US and expectations of increased supply from top South American producers like Brazil and Argentina. In its monthly world report, the USDA raised its projections of global corn inventories at the end of the 2026/2027 season to above trade expectations.  

Corn price technical analysis

Corn price has continued its downtrend into the new week after recording its sixth consecutive week of losses. On Monday, corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) extended its previous losses to trade at the lowest level since mid-August 2025. 

At the time of writing, it was trading at $4.07 per bushel after recording subtle gains in the previous session. Notably, it has been in the red for 15 out of the past 19 trading sessions. This represents a decline of over 15%.

A look at its daily chart points to continued selling pressure despite the expected corrective rebound. On the one hand, the bearish death-cross pattern formed about two weeks ago is still in place. The bearish pattern formed when the short-term 25-day EMA crossed the medium-term 50-day EMA to the downside. Besides, it is deep in the oversold territory at an RSI of 24. 

Based on these technical indicators, corn price will likely recover some of its recent losses even as the bears remain in control. In the immediate term, it will likely find support at $4.06 per bushel. This will place it within a trading range, with $4.17 being a resistance level worth watching. A breakout past that zone will likely curb its gains at $4.22. On the flip side, further losses may activate the lower level of $4.00 while invalidating the presented thesis.