Delta Air Lines: analýza ceny akcií a předpověď výsledků – koupit nebo prodat?

Cena akcií Delta Air Lines se během probíhající války s Íránem chovala lépe než u ostatních amerických leteckých společností. It has jumped by 5% in the last 30 days, while other companies like Southwest, United Airlines, and American Airlines have dropped by over 10% in this period. 

DAL stock vs other top airlines | Zdroj: TradingView

Delta Air Lines zveřejní výsledky 8. dubna

The DAL stock price has done better than other airline companies during the ongoing Iran war that has pushed jet fuel prices higher. Data compiled by IATA shows that the average jet fuel price jumped to $195 a barrel, up by 103% from a month earlier.

Historically, many American airlines helped to deal with these price swings through hedging, a move that most of them ended recently. Delta does not hedge these fuel costs, meaning that it is now having to pay the full price, a move that will undoubtedly affect its margins.

Společnost poskytne více informací o tom, jak válka ovlivní její podnikání v letošním roce. Pozitivní je, že se firma s podobnými šoky již dříve vypořádala, včetně roku 2022, kdy invaze Ruska na Ukrajinu vedla k růstu cen ropy a k narušení letového provozu.

Také existuje možnost, že ceny leteckého paliva prudce klesnou po ukončení války, které se může uskutečnit v příštích týdnech nebo měsících. Donald Trump stanovil lhůtu zhruba na 2 weeks although analysts believes that it will last for longer.

The most recent results showed that Delta’s business did well in the fourth quarter and last year despite the challenges in the civil aviation industry. Its fourth quarter revenue rose to $16 billion, while the operating profit jumped to $1.5 billion. The company made an operating cash flow of $2.3 billion.

For the year, Delta made over $63.4 billion in revenue, $5.8 billion in operating profit, and an operating cash flow of $14.1 billion. Its total debt and lease obligations ended the year at $14.1 billion.

Podnikání společnosti táhne silný tržní podíl na klíčových trasách v USA a důraz na prémiová sedadla. Firma také snižuje dluh, který nashromáždila během pandemie.

Analysts expect the upcoming results to show that its revenue rose by 5.38% in the first quarter to $14.8 billion, while the earnings-per-share (EPS) rose from 46 cents to 62 cents. 

Je pravděpodobné, že reálná čísla budou kvůli válce a prudkému růstu cen paliv nižší než tyto odhady. The annual revenue is expected to grow to $67.2 billion this year followed by $70 billion next year.

Technická analýza ceny akcií DAL 

Graf akcií Delta Air Lines | Zdroj: TradingView 

The daily chart shows that the DAL stock price has done well in the past few weeks, moving from a low of $55.20 in March to the current $66.7.

The stock has formed a harami candlestick pattern, which is made up of a small bullish candle that follows a bigger bearish one.

Delta Air Lines stock remains above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) and the ascending trendline that links the lowest swings since June last year  

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the stock continues rising, possibly to the year-to-date high of $76, which is up by 14% above the current level.