Bitcoin steadies near $65,000 as equities rebound and whales accumulate

Bitcoin briefly climbed to about $66,000 on Tuesday before easing to roughly $64,900 on Wednesday Asian morning up around 2.8% on the day, as risk appetite improved across equities ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, according to CoinGecko data reported by Decrypt.

Traders framed the move as a relief rally following last week’s tariff and legal volatility rather than a direct response to President Donald Trump’s address.

Asian stocks advanced, and major US indexes closed higher, with several analysts calling Nvidia’s report the week’s key catalyst for both equities and digital assets.

Whale activity and oversold signals

Market data provider Material Indicators reported a $4.5 million spot purchase by large investors, noting the order was unusual for that class of buyer.

“We typically see them do this when they are buying directly into liquidity to help break walls.”

Although the purchase was relatively small in absolute terms, analysts viewed it as a sign of renewed interest from large holders.

Bitcoin remains roughly 49% below its all-time high.

Technical indicators also suggest extreme market conditions. Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index fell to 25.71, levels not seen since July 2022. Galaxy head of firmwide research Alex Thorn said Bitcoin is “nearing all-time oversold territory,” explaining that the “Weekly RSI is lower than any time except the darkest of bears.”

The cryptocurrency is also trading within 9% of its 200-week exponential moving average near $58,855, a level historically associated with long-term bottoms.

However, analyst Rekt Capital warned a daily close below the 200-EMA “could turn it into resistance on any upcoming recovery” and may “prompt additional bearish acceleration to the downside.”

Analyst Brian Brookshire added that “grinding out a bottom” could take time and may require improved supply-profit metrics and a bounce off mining cost levels.

Macro factors and political backdrop

Bitcoin rose more than $2,000 ahead of President Donald Trump’s address to Congress, briefly reaching about $66,000 before retreating.

Analysts attributed the move primarily to broader market positioning.

Derek Lim of Caladan said the increase reflected “a combination of risk-on positioning ahead of Nvidia earnings and a relief bounce off the tariff and Supreme Court chaos from the prior week.”

“Both of these had far more direct market relevance than anything said at the podium,” he said.

During the speech, Trump described the economy as a “turnaround for the ages,” stating the country is “bigger, better, richer, and stronger” and highlighting tax cuts, tariffs, and reduced inflation.

He added that “inflation is plummeting” and “incomes are rising fast.”

The president also said tariffs brought in “hundreds of billions of dollars” and pledged they would remain in place despite a Supreme Court ruling, calling it “a very unfortunate ruling.”

Market outlook and institutional sentiment

Equity markets also gained as investors positioned ahead of Nvidia earnings, which analysts described as a major catalyst for both equities and digital assets.

Meanwhile, rising short interest in Strategy Inc (formerly known as Microstrategy)., heavily tied to Bitcoin, drew attention.

Strategy has emerged as the most shorted large-cap US stock, as investors increase bearish bets against the company’s Bitcoin-focused business model.

Among companies valued above $25 billion, about 14% of Strategy’s publicly traded shares are sold short, according to Goldman Sachs data.

Investor Steve Eisman, known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, also confirmed he has taken a short position.

The surge in negative positioning follows nearly $7 billion in unrealized losses tied to the firm’s Bitcoin holdings, a core part of its strategy.

Shares have fallen more than 63% over the past six months, underperforming Bitcoin over the same period.

Tom Lee said when a stock becomes a “consensus” short, it can rally because negative expectations are already priced in.

Bitcoin’s long-term direction remains uncertain.

Some analysts see capitulation-level signals consistent with past cycle bottoms, while others caution that macroeconomic conditions and Federal Reserve policy will likely determine whether a sustained recovery develops.