This software stock is down 74%, but set for a sharp rebound

Figma (NYSE: FIG) is one of those rare IPOs where the chart looks broken, but the underlying business doesn’t.

The stock priced at $33 in its July 31, 2025 IPO, opened at $85, and closed day one at $115.50, an explosive 250% debut that is called the biggest first-day pop in at least three decades for a US-traded company raising more than $1 billion.

Now the contrast: FIG last closed at $30.22, down about 74% from that first-day close, and miles below the 52-week high of $142.92.

That disconnect is why investors are starting to look again: this is a company that has still been putting up around 40% revenue growth even after the post-IPO hype cycle ended.

The “fall” in Figma stock reads more like an IPO mechanics story than a business meltdown.

After Figma’s debut, the market cap was widely cited around $68 billion by the end of the first session, an extreme starting point for any newly public software name.

From there, the stock had nowhere to go but down as the market moved from celebrating the IPO to pricing the company like a normal, competitive SaaS (software-as-a-service) business.

That re-rating got tougher as investors, broadly, were less willing to pay premium multiples for growth.

Importantly, Figma’s operating story stayed intact: revenue in Q4 came in at about $304 million, up 40% year over year, and full-year revenue was about $1.056 billion.

The floor forming

At roughly $30, FIG is trading close to its IPO price again, psychologically important because it’s where long-term holders and new investors start arguing less about “what it used to be worth” and more about “what it can earn.”

The other reason the floor argument is getting louder is that Wall Street analysts, on balance, haven’t abandoned the name.

StockAnalysis shows a consensus “Buy” rating and an average 12-month price target of $50.50, implying about 63% upside from recent levels.

Why the comeback case looks real

Three datapoints do most of the heavy lifting.

First is retention. Figma reported a 136% net dollar retention rate as of Dec. 31, 2025.

In plain English, that means existing customers are spending meaningfully more over time, even before counting new customers.

Second is guidance. Management guided 2026 revenue of $1.366–$1.374 billion, which multiple reports noted was ahead of analyst expectations around $1.287 billion.

Third is the near-term catalyst: Figma is moving to monetize AI more directly.

The company plans to start charging via paid AI credits and usage-based pricing starting in March, a shift that ties revenue to how much customers actually use AI features, not just how many seats they buy.

Risks to watch

This isn’t a free lunch, as even bullish takes acknowledge the real uncertainty.

AI infrastructure investment can pressure margins, and at least one report flagged expected margin compression tied to that spending.

The bigger question is execution.

If customers resist paying for AI usage, or if usage doesn’t scale the way management hopes, the pricing shift could underwhelm.

For now, FIG’s story is best framed as a watchlist setup with fundamentals and the stock price telling two different stories, and the next couple of quarters will show whether that gap is justified.