Cardano price forecast: can ADA break $0.30 after whale buying?

Cardano (ADA) is the best performer among the leading cryptocurrencies, up 10% in the last 24 hours.

The coin is currently trading at $0.28 and looks to close the daily candle above the descending trendline.

On-chain and derivatives data paint a bullish scenario, with large wallets increasing their ADA exposure alongside rising Open Interest (OI) and positive funding rates.

Whales increase exposure to Cardano

ADA has outperformed other major cryptocurrencies thanks to its ongoing rally. The rally is fueled by growing institutional and retail demand.

Santiment’s Supply Distribution data supports a bullish outlook for Cardano. On-chain data shows that certain whales are accumulating ADA tokens during recent dips.

The metric revealed that whales holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA tokens have accumulated a total of 60 million tokens from Friday to Monday.

Furthermore, wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA tokens have shed 50 million tokens.

This indicates that the second group of whales has reduced their exposure, while the first set seized the opportunity and accumulated Cardano at a discount.

The derivatives data also support the current bullish outlook.

CoinGlass’s Cardano futures Open Interest (OI) has hit $509 million on Monday, steadily rising since early March.

An increasing OI represents new or additional money entering the market and new buying, which could fuel the current ADA price rally.

Furthermore, Cardano’s funding rates flipped positive on Sunday and surged to 0.009% on Monday.

This suggests that longs are currently paying shorts. Historically, when the funding rates flip positive, Cardano’s price has surged. 

Cardano price outlook: ADA eyes February 25 swing high

The ADA/USD daily chart is bearish and efficient as Cardano is now trading above $0.28 per coin.

The coin broke above the $0.25 trendline resistance a few days ago, and now looks to rally higher in the near term. 

Currently, ADA remains below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) clustered around $0.29–$0.35.

The momentum indicators paint a bullish picture. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart at 56 shows improving momentum above the midline. 

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line holds above its signal and above the zero line, suggesting buyers retain the initiative despite overhead moving-average pressure.

If the bullish trend continues, ADA would face immediate resistance at the recent swing high and the horizontal barrier at $0.29.

The February 25 swing high of $0.31 could also serve as a target for the bulls.

An extended bullish scenario would allow ADA to hit the 100-day EMA band near $0.34 for the first time since January 29. 

However, if the recovery fails, initial support is seen around $0.27, ahead of the former breakout region at $0.25. 

Failure to defend the $0.25 support line would weaken the bullish momentum and allow the bears to retest the horizontal support at $0.24.