BitMEX floats wait-and-see alternative to BIP-361 quantum freeze

BitMEX floats wait-and-see alternative to BIP-361 quantum freeze
Rony Roy
16 Apr 2026, 11:07 AM

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BTC canary optionality

Buy spot Bitcoin (BTC-USD). The canary fund delays forced freezes, reducing tail-risk of abrupt liquidity/market structure shocks versus BIP-361’s staged deadline. If the bounty address is never spent, legacy holders keep optionality; if it is spent, the market gets a credible, priced-in trigger rather than a political surprise freeze.

Key Risk: A credible quantum-decryption demonstration happens (bounty spent) and the market reprices immediately for forced legacy freezes, triggering a sharp BTC drawdown.

Legacy-address risk premium

Sell GBTC (or any BTC trust with legacy exposure optics) / short BTC via BTC perpetuals. The canary mechanism still implies eventual freezing if the threat is proven; trusts can trade at a higher discount when “freeze probability” rises, even if timing is pushed out. You’re monetizing the lingering overhang from BIP-361’s legacy migration narrative.

Key Risk: Regulators/developers adopt the canary approach broadly with clear timelines and minimal freeze impact, compressing the discount and squeezing the short.

  • BitMEX proposed a canary fund to detect real quantum risk before action.
  • The plan triggers a Bitcoin freeze only if a risk is proven.
  • The approach positions itself as an alternative to BIP-361.

BitMEX Research has put forward a conditional alternative to freezing quantum-vulnerable Bitcoin, arguing that any drastic action should wait until a real threat is proven.

BitMEX Research said Thursday that its proposed soft fork would only trigger a network-wide freeze of vulnerable coins if it is “proven that a quantum computer capable of stealing Bitcoins actually exists.”

The proposal comes just days after developers introduced BIP-361, a draft plan focused on migrating Bitcoin to quantum-resistant addresses while eventually freezing coins that remain exposed to quantum risks.

As an alternative, BitMex’s idea introduces a “canary fund” mechanism designed to act as an early warning system rather than enforcing immediate restrictions on older wallets.

Under the proposal, a special Bitcoin address would be created using a “Nothing-Up-My-Sleeve Number,” a cryptographic construct where the private key is unknown but the address remains valid.

Users could voluntarily send BTC to the address as a bounty, effectively inviting any quantum-capable actor to demonstrate their ability.

If the funds in that address are ever spent, the system would treat it as proof that quantum decryption is no longer theoretical.

At that point, the soft fork would automatically activate protections, including freezing coins considered vulnerable.

BitMEX framed the design as a way to “ring the alarm” only when a credible threat materialises.

What is BIP-361?

Titled the “Post Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Sunset,” the BIP-361 proposal seeks to phase out Bitcoin’s current signature schemes and impose a deadline for users to migrate funds to quantum-resistant addresses.

Coins that fail to move would eventually be frozen.

BIP-361 sets out a three-stage rollout, beginning with blocking inflows to legacy addresses roughly three years after activation, followed by a full freeze two years later, and a possible recovery path using zero-knowledge proofs for affected holders.

Data cited in the draft suggests over 34% of Bitcoin has already exposed a public key on-chain, leaving it theoretically vulnerable if quantum capabilities advance far enough.

Canary approach offers a delay instead of deadline

BitMEX’s alternative keeps those legacy coins spendable unless a confirmed breach occurs.

The proposed “canary watch state” allows transactions from older wallets to continue, provided no one successfully drains the bounty address.

Participants contributing to the canary fund would retain flexibility, with multisignature controls allowing them to withdraw their BTC at any time.

The framework also introduces a buffer period beyond the five-year timeline discussed in BIP-361, where certain transactions could still be processed but with temporary output locks.

“While this approach adds complexity and risk, given how controversial any coin freeze is, mitigating the impact of the freeze using this type of system may be worth consideration,” BitMex said in the proposal.