XRP is testing $1 while whales buy, but the charts still look dangerous

Ripple XRP is down by nearly 1% in the last 24 hours and is trading near the psychologically important $1.00 support level on Friday.

Consistent inflows into US-listed spot XRP Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), accumulation by large holders, and an improving risk-to-reward profile suggest that selling pressure may be easing.

However, XRP remains below its major moving averages, while momentum indicators continue to favor sellers.

The combination leaves the token at a crucial point where holding the $1.00 support could determine its next directional move.

Institutional demand supports XRP recovery prospects

Institutional interest in XRP remains resilient despite the token’s ongoing price correction.

Data from CoinGlass’s ETF page shows that US-listed spot XRP ETFs recorded $2.25 million in net inflows through Thursday.

Another positive session on Friday would allow the products to complete a fifth consecutive week of net inflows.

The sustained inflows indicate that institutional investors continue to gain exposure to XRP even as its price trades near a major support level.

Persistent ETF demand could absorb some of the available supply and cushion XRP against further downside. If inflows continue, the trend may also provide a foundation for a broader recovery.

Still, the relatively modest size of this week’s flows means buyers would likely need to maintain their interest for ETF demand to have a more substantial effect on XRP’s price.

CryptoQuant data shows that large XRP holders have been quietly building positions.

XRP’s average spot order size has remained dominated by transactions classified as big-whale activity throughout the year, even as the token trades within the $1.00-to-$1.20 range.

The presence of large buyers near current levels suggests that influential market participants may view the area as attractive for long-term accumulation.

However, XRP’s 90-day taker Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has cooled to a neutral level. The indicator measures the difference between aggressive market buying and selling over time.

A neutral reading suggests that accumulation is occurring without strong buying pressure. Whales may be adding exposure gradually instead of aggressively pushing the price higher.

This positioning improves XRP’s risk-to-reward profile and signals that the decline may be entering its later stages.

Nevertheless, the absence of strong taker demand means the market has not yet confirmed a durable bottom.

XRP technical forecast: XRP approaches undervalued territory

XRP is trading at approximately $1.004 on Friday after rebounding from support near $1.00 the previous day.

Despite the bounce, the broader technical structure remains bearish. XRP is trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.087, the 100-day EMA at $1.169, and the 200-day EMA at $1.362.

The positioning of all three moving averages above the current price indicates that sellers retain control of the medium- and long-term trends.

Momentum indicators also remain weak. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 36, below its neutral level of 50 but above oversold territory. 

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, signaling that bearish momentum has not fully faded.

Immediate support sits at $1.00. Buyers must defend this level to prevent another leg lower and preserve the possibility of a near-term recovery.

If XRP gains momentum, the 50-day EMA at $1.087 represents the first significant resistance. A close above this level could open the path toward the 100-day EMA at $1.169.

Further resistance sits at $1.300, followed by the 200-day EMA at $1.362. A more sustained bullish reversal could eventually bring the distant $1.900 barrier into focus.

For now, XRP’s ETF inflows and whale accumulation offer reasons for cautious optimism, but a decisive move above the short-term moving averages is required to confirm that a meaningful recovery has begun.