Samsung stock plunges as Apple enters foldables: is its seven-year lead at risk

Samsung Electronics stock fell on Thursday after Apple finally entered a smartphone category Samsung has spent seven years developing.

Apple unveiled its first foldable iPhone, the $1,999 iPhone Duo, on Wednesday, putting Apple directly against Samsung’s Galaxy Fold line.

Samsung shares fell 1.5% to 265,500 won, while the wider KOSPI was under pressure as Brent crude held above $100 and Middle East tensions weighed on Asian markets.

Apple waited seven years to enter Samsung’s market

Samsung launched the original Galaxy Fold in 2019 and has since spent years improving durability, hinges, creases, battery life and form factor.

That experience is producing results. Samsung executive Dave Das told Fortune that sales of the company’s latest foldables are up about 30% by volume from a year earlier.

Its passport-style Galaxy Z Fold 8 accounts for roughly 40% of foldable sales, while the higher-end Fold Ultra 8 represents another 40%.

But Apple did not have to endure those early years of experimentation.

Forrester analyst Dipanjan Chatterjee told India Today that Apple’s entry was “straight out of Apple’s playbook”: wait for a product to work through its problems, then enter once the market shows signs of viability and reshape the category.

That is the uncomfortable part of Samsung’s first-mover advantage, as seven years of iteration may have solved many problems Apple once had reason to avoid.

IDC sees Apple changing the balance quickly

Foldables are still small, accounting for about 2% of global smartphone shipments, which means Apple does not need enormous volumes to shift market share quickly.

IDC expects Apple to sell about 10 million Duo units in its first 12 months and generate roughly $27 billion in revenue. That would give Apple an estimated 44% share of the segment’s value.

The market intelligence body forecasted that Apple will capture nearly one-third of the foldable market in 2026 and 40% in 2027.

IDC research associate Kiranjeet Kaur told Malay Mail that Apple’s foldable is “very likely to shift the competitive dynamics” in China and globally.

Apple already has hundreds of millions of iPhone users who previously had to leave iOS to get a foldable.

Samsung can therefore keep growing unit sales and still lose a disproportionate share of the premium value pool.

Apple could make Samsung’s market bigger

Apple’s arrival is not automatically bearish for Samsung.

The iPhone Duo could validate foldables for a larger audience, encourage developers to optimise apps for bigger folding displays and turn a niche form factor into a mainstream premium category.

CCS Insight analyst Ben Wood said that Apple should bring “fresh attention” to foldables and increase acceptance of the designs despite high prices and evolving use cases.

Samsung also retains important advantages. It offers multiple foldable designs and price points, while Apple’s Duo starts at $1,999.

The company has years of consumer data and a mature supply chain behind its devices.

Samsung’s foldable business could keep expanding while Apple captures more of the category’s most profitable customers and establishes the pricing benchmark.

The first meaningful test comes when iPhone Duo pre-orders open on October 16, followed by sales on October 23.