Utili P&G: perché il CFO ha minimizzato il calo delle vendite organiche

Procter & Gamble PG shares opened in the red this morning as investors reacted to the Q4 sales miss and guidance that signalled potential cost headwinds.

The consumer goods specialist posted $1.43 a share of earnings (EPS) – which topped Wall Street estimates by 2 cents; but its revenue at $21.2 billion fell short of the $21.38 billion consensus.

P&G’s organic revenue growth also stood at 0.5% in the fourth quarter, much weaker than experts’ call for a 1.6% increase.

Still, CFO Andre Schulten downplayed the miss and opted for a bullish tone in a “post-earnings” interview with CNBC today. Including the recent decline, Procter & Gamble stock is down some 13% versus its year-to-date high.

CFO's take on organic sales miss

According to Andre Schulten, end-consumer demand remains surprisingly strong in Q4 despite what the reported revenue number implies.

The actual consumer take-at-the-register (sellout) ran much hotter than company shipments (sell-in), which accelerated earlier in fiscal Q3.

On “Squawk Box”, the chief of finance also attributed the top-line miss to “trade spend recognition”.

However, he dubbed the 2.5% sellout “fairly strong”, adding Procter & Gamble saw broad-based strength across international regions.  

Note that PG shares currently pay a lucrative dividend yield of 3% - which makes them attractive to buy on the post-earnings dip.

P&G opted for conservative guidance

For the newly started fiscal year, P&G issued “conservative guidance” for 1% to 3% organic sales growth and the core EPS to come in between flat and up 3%.

Schulten explained that the mid-point of this range assumes consumer demand remains stable at around 2% consumption growth, but incorporates significant geopolitical and supply chain risks.

Specifically, elevated oil prices near $90 per barrel driven by ongoing turmoil in the Middle East present roughly $1 billion in after-tax headwinds – representing a 7% drag on earnings growth.

Because this outlook factors in sustained transportation and raw material pressures, any potential easing in global energy costs or shipping bottlenecks could help PG hit the top end of its guidance.

This could drive Procter & Gamble shares higher in the back half of 2026 as well.  

How to play PG stock after Q4 earnings?

Despite short-term noise, P&G’s underlying operational fundamentals reflect strong execution.

The company capped off its full fiscal year with every major operating metric inside its original target range, backed by $2.8 billion in annual productivity savings – its highest cost-efficiency achievement in nearly a decade.

Furthermore, 7 out of 7 geographic regions and 9 out of 10 product categories continued to expand or hold organic market share, marked by a notable operational turnaround in China.

Having returned $15 billion to shareholders via buybacks and dividends over the past 12 months, management remains confident that accelerating underlying momentum – evidenced in H2 organic sales growth outpacing H1 – positions PG stock well to navigate supply chain cost spikes.