Wywiad z Jamesem Koutoulassem, Typhon Capital

President Donald Trump's recent executive orders imposing tariffs, the spectre of a trade war, inflation and interest-rate cuts uncertainty have introduced notable volatility into the stock market.

Według najnowszego badania przeprowadzonego przez American Association of Individual Investors, w lutym 2025 r. 47,3% inwestorów indywidualnych spodziewa się spadku cen akcji w ciągu najbliższych sześciu miesięcy.

That is the highest level since November 2023.

Despite the long-term bullishness attached to a pro-crypto Trump presidency, crypto markets have also not gone unscathed since inauguration day, as investors' shift towards safer assets and profit-taking has triggered a sell-off.

Invezz turned to James L Koutoulas, founder and CEO of multi-strategy hedge fund Typhon Capital, to understand how hedge fund strategies are being impacted by the broad macroeconomic shifts, how Typhon's crypto investment strategy has evolved in recent times, and why, he feels this time, markets "won't get fooled again" by Trump's tweets, taking tariff talks as more of a negotiating ploy.

Excerpts from an emailed interaction:

Commodity prices will continue to rise, hedge funds have also re-engaged in grains, oilseeds

Invezz: How do you see the current macroeconomic environment affecting commodities and hedge fund strategies?

We think the higher volatility under Trump makes hedge fund strategies much more valuable if they are good at risk management.

Commodity prices have been going up over the last six months (food) and will continue to move higher.

Fundusze hedgingowe powinny były zainwestować w tradycyjne towary już jakiś czas temu.

Animal proteins are diminishing due to weather and disease globally, and prices have reflected that.

Podobne sytuacje, w różnym stopniu, dotyczą zbóż, nasion oleistych i towarów miękkich – wystarczy spojrzeć na ceny kakao i kawy.

Funds have re-engaged in those.

Invezz: How do you see Trump's proposed steel and aluminum tariffs affecting commodity markets and supply chains? How do investors navigate this phase of tariff imposition and possible retaliations?

The first time around, markets seemed to take Trump’s tweets as gospel, much to their detriment.

Tym razem nawiązują do The Who i piosenki „Won't Get Fooled Again”, traktując rozmowy o cłach jako taktykę negocjacyjną.

Ewolucja strategii inwestycji kryptowalutowych Typhon Capital

Invezz: Jak Typhon Capital podchodzi do inwestycji w kryptowaluty obecnie w porównaniu z ostatnimi kilkoma latami?

We’ve stuck to our core approach of thorough counterparty and coin due diligence, which has ensured that we have never invested even $1 in an exchange or coin that subsequently failed.

W większości zachowaliśmy również nasze nastawienie na względną wartość i zwrot z uwzględnieniem ryzyka, co pozwoliło nam osiągnąć współczynnik Sortino na poziomie 4 i jedną trzecią maksymalnego spadku BTC w ciągu ośmiu lat.

Last year though, we added a systematic BTC and ETH futures trend-following strategy into the fund, and this year we have added some limited DeFi exposure through CoinBase Prime’s On-Chain Wallet.

Kryptowaluty będą nadal traktowane jako aktywa „ryzykowne” o silnej korelacji z akcjami

Invezz: Czy fundusze hedgingowe i tradycyjni zarządzający aktywami będą przeznaczać więcej kapitału na kryptowaluty w 2025 r.?

Absolutely. Gary Gensler’s departure, combined with a pro-crypto, meme-coin-repping President Trump, has removed the regulatory stigma from the space and created a new wave of optimism.

Invezz: Given the recent correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks, do you think institutional adoption will further align crypto with equity markets, or will it decouple over time?

We think crypto will continue to be a “risk-on” asset with a strong correlation to equities.