Nvidia stock stuck below $180: what's hurting the AI darling?

Nvidia shares edged lower in early Monday trading as a Wall Street analyst flagged a potential reduction in the chipmaker's production plans for its next-generation artificial intelligence processors.

Shares in the Santa Clara-based chipmaker were down 0.15% at $176.58 in early trading, underperforming the wider market as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained little changed.

According to KeyBanc analyst John Vinh, Nvidia may have been forced to lower its 2026 production of Rubin graphics-processing units to approximately 1.5 million units, down from an originally planned 2 million.

The analyst attributed the reduction to delays in securing adequate supplies of high-bandwidth memory from key suppliers SK Hynix and Micron Technology.

"The ramp of Nvidia's Rubin GPU has been delayed due to issues related to the qualification of HBM4 at SK Hynix and to a lesser extent Micron," Vinh wrote in a note to clients.

Despite the flagged shortfall, the analyst stopped well short of a bearish call on the stock.

Vinh maintained an Overweight rating and a $275 price target on Nvidia shares, and said he still expects the company to ship more than 60,000 of its NV72 server racks — which network together dozens of AI chips — during the current year.

Vera Rubin in focus

Nvidia has been closely watched for the rollout of its Vera Rubin AI servers, which CEO Jensen Huang has said are in "full production," with commercial sales expected in the second half of the year.

The hardware is positioned as a significant performance step-up — approximately 3.3 times faster than the current top-of-range Blackwell Ultra equivalent — and is powered by Rubin graphics-processing units paired with Vera central-processing units.

The Vera Rubin range spans multiple price points. According to HSBC estimates, the current-generation GB300 NV72 rack is priced at around $3 million, while the forthcoming Vera Rubin NVL144 is expected to cost $3.2 million.

The higher-end Rubin Ultra NVL576 configuration carries an estimated price tag of $8.8 million.

Geopolitical risks compound supply chain concerns

The production concerns arrive alongside a separate set of risks taking shape in Asia.

While semiconductor companies have not yet reported direct operational impacts, investor attention is increasingly focused on potential supply chain disruptions linked to energy access in the region.

A significant portion of Asia's energy supply depends on oil and gas shipments that typically transit the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently effectively blocked.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world's largest chipmaker and a critical supplier to Nvidia, is seen as particularly vulnerable to energy supply disruptions.

TSMC accounts for roughly 9% of Taiwan's total electricity consumption, with natural gas representing the island's primary energy source.

Taiwanese authorities have indicated that existing liquefied natural gas reserves should be sufficient through May.

However, the situation remains a point of concern for investors with exposure to the semiconductor supply chain.

Nvidia stock remains under pressure

Nvidia's shares have already been under considerable pressure in recent months, having fallen nearly 20% from their record high in October amid a broad-based global market selloff.

Part of that decline has been attributed to geopolitical concerns, particularly those surrounding tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.

The prospect of sustained elevated oil prices stoking inflation — and the consequent risk of central banks maintaining or tightening monetary policy — has weighed disproportionately on high-growth technology stocks, including Nvidia.

As a result, the chipmaker is now trading at one of its lowest valuation levels in recent years.

Nvidia is currently valued at approximately 20 times its expected earnings over the next 12 months.

Compounding valuation concerns, investors are increasingly reassessing the pace at which returns will materialise from heavy capital expenditure on AI infrastructure.

Major Nvidia customers — including Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon — continue to invest aggressively in AI buildout.

However, concerns persist that these expenditures may take longer than anticipated to translate into meaningful revenue and profit growth, adding further pressure on sentiment toward the sector.