IBM hisseleri 7% geriledi, büyüme endişeleri yapay zekâ korkularını tetikledi

IBM hisseleri, şirketin gelir büyümesinde bir yavaşlama bildirmesinin—özellikle yazılım bölümünde—ardından Perşembe günü seans öncesi işlemlerde sert düştü ve yatırımcıların yapay zekânın ana iş üzerindeki etkisine dair endişelerini yeniden canlandırdı.

Teknoloji devi Wall Street beklentilerini aşan first-quarter sonuçları açıklasa da büyümedeki yavaşlama ve artan AI kaynaklı bozulum korkuları duyarlılığı baskıladı ve hisse 7% düşüş kaydetti.

Yazılım endişeleriyle gelir büyümesi yavaşlıyor

IBM reported revenue of $15.92 billion for the quarter, up 9% from a year earlier but slower than the 12.2% growth recorded in the previous quarter.

The figure still came in ahead of analysts’ average estimate of $15.62 billion, according to LSEG data.

Şirketin hibrit bulut platformu Red Hat ve Watsonx yapay zekâ araçları paketi ile desteklenen yazılım bölümü, kârın ana itici kaynaklarından biri olarak ılımlanma işaretleri gösterdi.

Revenue in the division rose 11.3%, with analysts noting a further slowdown when adjusted for currency effects.

Sonuçlar, rutin kurumsal işlevleri otomatikleştirebilecek AI araçlarının geleneksel yazılım işlerini bozabileceğine dair endişelerin arttığı bir dönemde geldi.

Bu korkular bu yılın başında yoğunlaştı after Anthropic said one of its tools could help modernise COBOL, a programming language widely used in IBM’s mainframe systems.

"Bu sonuçların önemi, piyasanın bu yıl AI rekabeti korkuları arasında gördüğü yazılım/hizmet satış baskısı göz önüne alındığında normalin üzerindeydi ve biz Q1’s results validated those fears olduğunu düşünmüyoruz," CFRA analyst Brooks Idlet said in a Reuters report.

Yine de bazı analistler temkinli kalıyor.

Jefferies said software revenue growth of 8% at constant currency points to a clear deceleration, adding that concerns around AI competition continue to weigh on the company’s valuation.

Altyapı gücü zayıflığı telafi ediyor

Yazılım büyümesi yumuşarken, IBM’in altyapı işi daha güçlü bir performans sergiledi.

Revenue in the segment rose 15.2% to $3.33 billion, supported by continued demand for its latest generation of mainframe systems.

Şirket yönetimi, yapay zekânın tehditten ziyade bir büyüme itici gücü olmaya devam ettiğini savunuyor.

CEO Arvind Krishna said that "AI continues to be a tailwind for" the company’s global operations.

"IBM products and services are helping clients orchestrate, deploy and govern AI across hybrid environments," Krishna said in a statement.

Chief Financial Officer James Kavanaugh also pointed to the benefits of AI adoption within IBM’s core offerings.

"Gen AI in modernization of mainframe is actually an accelerator and accretive to the mainframe portfolio overall," he told Reuters, adding that clients using such tools are seeing increased consumption.

Outlook and competitive pressures

IBM reaffirmed its outlook, expecting revenue growth of more than 5% in constant currency in 2026 and a year-on-year increase of $1 billion in free cash flow.

Analysts say the company’s longstanding enterprise relationships and AI-focused products, including Watsonx Code Assistant, could help it compete with emerging AI tools.

However, competition remains intense, particularly from newer entrants targeting legacy systems.

Ahead of the print, RBC Capital Markets analyst Matthew Swanson noted that the strength in IBM’s previous earnings came "despite slower-than-expected growth" in Red Hat, highlighting ongoing concerns about the division’s trajectory.

He added that investor skepticism has centred on IBM’s "ability to return to growth in the consulting vertical while software growth, particularly Red Hat," remains under scrutiny.

Geopolitical risks appear contained

On a post-earnings call, Krishna downplayed the impact of geopolitical tensions, including the conflict in the Middle East.

He said IBM had recorded its strongest regional growth in decades and could manage disruptions from a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz for several weeks.

Despite beating profit expectations, with adjusted earnings of $1.91 per share versus estimates of $1.81, IBM’s results underscore the balancing act facing the company as it navigates slowing software growth and intensifying competition in the age of artificial intelligence.