Chevron forbereder sig på fald i Q1-resultater og omsætning

Chevron forbereder sig på en mulig nedtur, idet Wall Street-analytikere generelt forventer et år-til-år fald i både indtjening og omsætning for kvartalet, der slutter marts 2026. 

Oliegigantens kortsigtede aktiekursudvikling vil dog afhænge af, om de faktiske resultater formår at afkræfte eller bekræfte disse bredt accepterede konsensusestimater.

Det kommende regnskab, planlagt offentliggjort May 1, vil sandsynligvis afgøre aktiens retning. Hvis de centrale finansielle tal overgår forventningerne, er aktien sat i en position til at stige; omvendt kan en skuffelse føre til et fald.

Q1 earnings forecast vs. long-term growth strategy

Det er fornuftigt at vurdere sandsynligheden for en positiv indtjening pr. aktie (EPS)-overraskelse, selvom den langsigtede bæredygtighed af den indledende kursbevægelse og de fremtidige indtjeningsudsigter primært vil blive bestemt af ledelsens kommentarer om forretningsforholdene under den kommende regnskabscall.

Chevrons revenues are projected to reach 47,4 milliarder USD (ca. 308,9 milliarder kr.), according to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, representing a slight 0.5% decrease from the same period last year. 

Meanwhile, the consensus earnings per share forecast remains at 92 cents over the past seven days, indicating a significant 57.8% decline compared to the earnings reported a year ago.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a strong outlook for Chevron in 2026, anticipating revenues of 214 milliarder USD (ca. 1,4 billioner kr.), which represents a 13.2% year-over-year increase. 

In addition, the consensus mark for 2026 earnings per share is $13.55, suggesting an impressive surge of 85.9%.

Chevron har konsekvent overgået Zacks' konsensusestimat og rapporteret en gennemsnitlig indtjeningsoverraskelse på 5.6% over de sidste fire kvartaler.

Denne positive tendens fortsatte i det senest rapporterede kvartal, hvor selskabet leverede en indtjeningsoverraskelse på 5.6%.

Chevron styrker systematisk sin indtjening gennem igangværende omkostningsomstrukturering. 

In 2025, the company had already achieved 1,5 milliarder USD (ca. 9,8 milliarder kr.) in structural cost savings.

Dette er en del af en bredere strategi, i høj grad fokuseret på teknologiintegration og effektiviseringsforbedringer, med et klart mål om at nå $3–$4 billion in total savings by the end of 2026, according to a Yahoo Finance report. 

De finansielle gevinster er permanente, ikke midlertidige, idet de er integreret i driften og resulterer i lavere enhedsomkostninger og højere marginer.

Dette, sammen med en mere effektiv driftsstruktur og forbedret effektivitet i forsyningskæden, skaber et mere robust udsyn for free cash flow, selv midt i prisudsving. 

Som følge heraf forventes dette positivt at have påvirket Chevrons first-quarter earnings and cash flows.

Downstream losses and volume decline

Chevron's first-quarter performance is expected to reflect a somewhat bearish trend, primarily due to anticipated lower volumes and ongoing pressures in the downstream segment. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a decrease in production to 3.86 million of oil-equivalent barrels per day (MBOE/d), down from over 4.0 MBOE/d in the fourth quarter of 2025. 

This expected decline is largely attributed to downtime at Tengiz, as well as weaker output from operations in both Israel and the Partitioned Zone.

Downstream earnings are expected to be significantly lower, primarily due to several major impacts: $275–$325 million from turnarounds and downtime, and a legal charge of $350–$400 million. 

These factors are anticipated to temporarily overshadow the benefits of stronger upstream pricing, leading to an overall compression of earnings. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter downstream segment is currently a loss of 1,3 milliarder USD (ca. 8,5 milliarder kr.), a sharp contrast to the 325 millioner USD (ca. 2,1 milliarder kr.) profit reported by Chevron in the year-ago period.

Geopolitical buffer and accounting adjustments

Earlier this month, Chevron said it anticipates a first-quarter increase in upstream earnings, projecting a rise of 1,6 milliarder USD (ca. 10,4 milliarder kr.) to 2,2 milliarder USD (ca. 14,3 milliarder kr.) compared to the preceding quarter. 

The company attributes this expected growth primarily to elevated oil prices, spurred by the Iran war.

However, it cautioned that the final results could be partially offset by the impact of hedging activities.

The US oil major anticipates that accounting and hedging timing effects will result in a reduction of 2,7 milliarder USD (ca. 17,6 milliarder kr.) to 3,7 milliarder USD (ca. 24,1 milliarder kr.) after tax in both earnings and operating cash flow (excluding working capital).

This impact is primarily concentrated in the company's downstream business and is expected to reverse in the future.

The conflict in the Middle East, which began on February 28, led to a surge in oil prices, reaching increases of up to 65%. 

The price increase was primarily due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial chokepoint for 20% of the world's energy supply—which resulted in the cessation of production at several oil and gas fields in the Middle East.

Chevron is relatively insulated from Middle East volatility compared to other supermajors, with the region contributing just over 1% of its total liquids production.

This positioning means Chevron is better situated to capitalize on rising commodity prices, according to Biraj Borkhataria, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

Despite this advantage, Chevron anticipates its net oil-equivalent production will average 3.8 million to 3.9 million barrels per day. 

This is due to expected volume reductions from downtime at the Tengizchevroil project in Kazakhstan and decreased output in certain Middle Eastern areas.

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, Shell has indicated that weaker first-quarter gas output and a temporary impact on liquidity will be somewhat balanced by stronger oil trading. 

This revealed an early insight into how geopolitical tensions, specifically the US-Israeli conflict over Iran, are influencing the earnings outlook for major oil companies.