China’s solar exports surge 60% in april despite tax refund removal

China’s solar exports surge 60% in april despite tax refund removal
Rivanshi Rakhrai
18 May 2026, 16:54 PM

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Buy Chinese solar exporters

Buy: JinkoSolar (JKS), Trina Solar (TSLAF), and LONGi Green Energy (601012.SS). April exports +60% YoY despite export tax refund removal shows demand is absorbing supply; front-loading in March likely means April is the “real” run-rate. Expect margins to hold better than feared because buyers didn’t stop ordering and efficiency gains keep panels competitive. Also, stronger yuan supports export competitiveness and reduces FX drag for earnings.

Key Risk: A sudden global slowdown in solar installations (or a wave of anti-dumping/tariff actions) that cuts orders faster than Chinese supply can find buyers.

Sell yuan-sensitive importers

Sell: Alibaba (BABA) and JD.com (JD) via FX sensitivity to a stronger yuan. The article points to yuan strength from export resilience; that typically pressures import-heavy retail margins and can cool discretionary demand tied to imported goods. If the yuan keeps strengthening, these companies’ FX headwinds can worsen while solar export strength signals China’s growth is more manufacturing-led than consumer-led.

Key Risk: Consumer demand stays strong and import mix is small enough that FX doesn’t hit margins materially.

  • China’s solar exports rose sharply despite removal of export tax refunds.
  • Overseas demand from Southeast Asia and Africa continued supporting solar shipments.
  • Yuan strengthens as banks cite export competitiveness and stable trade relations.

China’s solar shipments abroad surged 60% year-on-year in April, according to China’s General Administration of Customs data released on Monday, showing continued strength in overseas demand even after Beijing removed an export tax refund program.

The data showed that China exported solar cells worth $3.12 billion during the month.

The increase in shipments came despite concerns that the cancellation of export tax rebates from April 1 could weigh on overseas sales.

However, the actual growth in energy terms could be even higher than the figures suggest, as advances in photovoltaic technology have improved efficiency over time.

Solar exports ease from March peak

Although exports remained significantly higher than a year earlier, shipments declined on a monthly basis.

China exported 1.34 billion solar cells in April, down from 1.71 billion in March.

In volume terms, exports stood at 1.16 million metric tons during April, compared with a record 1.78 million tons in March.

The March surge was partly driven by strong demand from Southeast Asia and Africa.

Analysts said buyers accelerated imports ahead of the government’s decision to end the export tax refund scheme.

Investors have also been betting that the Iran war could increase global demand for renewable energy.

However, analysts said the unusually strong March figures were also influenced by front-loading activity before the tax policy change took effect.

China’s customs administration is expected to release country-specific export data on Wednesday, which could provide further insight into the destinations driving demand growth.

Tax refund removal fails to dent overseas demand

The latest data suggested that the removal of export tax refunds has not yet significantly affected China’s solar exports.

China remains one of the world’s largest suppliers of solar equipment, and overseas demand has continued to support shipment volumes despite policy changes.

The strong export performance comes at a time when global renewable energy demand remains elevated, particularly across emerging markets seeking to expand solar infrastructure.

Although April exports fell from the previous month’s peak levels, the year-on-year growth highlighted the resilience of China’s solar manufacturing sector.

Yuan strengthens on export competitiveness

Several global investment banks have revised their forecasts for the Chinese yuan higher, citing the country’s export competitiveness and stable trade relations with the United States.

The Chinese currency has strengthened steadily this year.

On Monday, the yuan traded at 6.8040 per US dollar, marking a rise of nearly 3% against the greenback in 2026.

The yuan has also gained around 2.6% against China’s major trading partners during the same period.

Analysts said the currency’s strength reflected confidence in China’s export sector, which has remained resilient despite global trade uncertainties and shifting policy conditions.

The stronger yuan also comes alongside continued export growth in sectors such as renewable energy equipment, where Chinese manufacturers continue to play a dominant role in global supply chains.