Alphabet mula September positif: patutkah beli GOOG selepas jatuh 10%?

Pelabur Alphabet tidak banyak yang boleh diraikan sepanjang bulan lalu.

Induk Google, Alphabet, telah jatuh lebih daripada 10%, jauh ketinggalan berbanding S&P 500, yang meningkat about 1% dalam tempoh yang sama.

Penurunan itu berlaku walaupun prestasi suku kedua yang kukuh dan beberapa perkembangan yang boleh mengukuhkan kedudukan syarikat dalam kecerdasan buatan.

Itu menimbulkan soalan jelas untuk pelabur: adakah jualan besar-besaran ini mewujudkan peluang untuk membeli?

Terdapat hujah munasabah untuk membeli Alphabet pada paras semasa.

Syarikat kekal dominan dalam carian, mempunyai perniagaan Cloud yang berkembang pesat, memiliki beberapa infrastruktur AI paling penting dalam industri dan bergerak pantas untuk memperbaiki Gemini.

Tetapi terdapat juga sebab untuk tidak terburu-buru.

Alphabet membelanjakan jumlah yang belum pernah terjadi sebelum ini untuk bersaing dalam AI, manakala pelabur masih bimbang mengenai ketahanan perniagaan carian dan sama ada pendapatan terkini memberi gambaran tepat tentang penilaian asasnya.

Perkembangan terkini menunjukkan saham menjadi lebih menarik, tetapi tidak semestinya bebas risiko.

Mengapa GOOG merosot?

Saham kurang berprestasi terutamanya disebabkan kebimbangan pelabur bahawa Alphabet membelanjakan terlalu banyak, terlalu cepat.

The company raised its 2026 capital expenditure budget to between $195 billion and $205 billion during its second-quarter earnings call.

Perbelanjaan itu perlu jika Alphabet mahu bersaing dengan syarikat AI terbesar.

Tetapi pelabur semakin menuntut bukti bahawa wang itu akan menghasilkan pulangan yang menarik.

Tidak membantu apabila Alphabet melaporkan aliran tunai bebas negatif of about $5.9 billion dalam suku itu, berbanding roughly $5.3 billion aliran tunai bebas positif setahun sebelumnya.

Saham merosot selepas laporan pendapatan walaupun mengatasi anggaran Wall Street.

Risiko utama lain adalah perniagaan carian tradisional Google.

Alphabet masih menjana sebahagian besar nilai ekonominya daripada pengiklanan carian.

Kemunculan chatbot AI oleh itu telah mewujudkan ancaman langsung kepada perniagaan paling penting syarikat itu.

Eric Sheridan dari Goldman Sachs Research mengenal pasti perlambatan pertumbuhan carian sebagai salah satu daripada dua isu utama yang menekan saham Alphabet.

“There are two debates that are weighing on Alphabet shares,” Eric Sheridan, business unit leader of the TMT Group within Goldman Sachs Research, said on Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid.

“One is that search slowed down a little bit more than investors expected [in the second quarter].”

The second concern relates to talent departures and Google's AI strategy.

“The second bigger theme that's weighed on it is there's been brain drain,” Sheridan continued.

“There's been departures from folks at Gemini, Google, DeepMind, Google broadly, and Gemini's next-generation model has been delayed — the 3.5 Pro. And now they're talking about Gemini four. We've seen this with other companies. Meta went through it 12, 15 months ago when they ripped up the playbook and started spending billions.”

Soalan penting ialah sama ada AI akhirnya memusnahkan sebahagian ekonomi carian Google atau sebaliknya menjadikan Carian lebih bernilai dengan memperbaiki kualiti dan kaitan keputusan.

Sejauh ini, soalan itu masih belum diselesaikan.

Google memulakan September dengan momentum AI

Alphabet memulakan September dengan cuba mendapatkan semula momentum dalam perlumbaan AI.

Syarikat melancarkan Gemini 3.8 Flash on Wednesday, its third Flash model in six weeks, alongside a cybersecurity model aimed at government and enterprise customers.

Model Gemini baru itu memberi tumpuan khusus kepada pengaturcaraan, penalaran dan tugas agen.

Bidang itu semakin penting ketika syarikat AI cuba menukar peningkatan teknologi kepada hasil perusahaan.

Model Flash juga penting dari segi strategi kerana ia boleh lebih pantas dan murah untuk dikendalikan berbanding sistem frontier terbesar Google.

Pelancaran model pantas Google menunjukkan pengurusan tidak berdiam diri walaupun terdapat kebimbangan tentang kehilangan kelebihan kepada OpenAI dan Anthropic.

Walau bagaimanapun, pelabur tidak sepatutnya menyamakan kemajuan berterusan dengan kepimpinan AI yang jelas.

“Dari perspektif produk, model ini nampaknya mengekalkan Google dalam perlumbaan, tetapi mungkin tidak mengubah fakta bahawa mereka adalah pihak ketiga jauh dalam pasaran perusahaan,” kata Gil Luria, seorang penganalisis di D.A. Davidson, dalam satu temu bual, lapor CNBC.

Itu mungkin peringatan paling penting terhadap hujah kenaikan AI.

Alphabet tidak semestinya perlu menjadikan Gemini model AI dominan bagi hujah pelaburan berfungsi.

Ia memerlukan AI untuk mengukuhkan ekosistem Google yang lebih luas, termasuk Cloud, Carian, pengiklanan dan perisian perusahaan.

Alphabet turut menerima sedikit kelegaan regulatori

Pelabur turut menerima berita baik di bahagian regulatori.

Seorang hakim persekutuan AS pada hari Rabu menolak permintaan Jabatan Kehakiman untuk memaksa Google menjual pertukaran pengiklanan AdX miliknya.

Keputusan itu penting kerana pengalihan paksa akan menimbulkan ketidakpastian tambahan terhadap operasi pengiklanan Google.

Sebaliknya, mahkamah memilih remedi tingkah laku.

AdX sendiri mewakili bahagian yang agak kecil dalam keseluruhan perniagaan Alphabet, tetapi keputusan itu menghapuskan satu sumber potensi gangguan.

Oleh itu ia merupakan satu positif asas yang sederhana dan berpotensi menjadi positif sentimen yang lebih penting.

Saham Google bagaimanapun tidak banyak bereaksi, dan ditutup lebih tinggi by 0.6% pada hari Rabu, sebelum gaining about 0.7% semasa pra-pasaran pada hari Khamis.

Pertaruhan Berkshire mengukuhkan hujah jangka panjang

Salah satu perkembangan ketara bagi pelabur Alphabet ialah kedudukan Berkshire Hathaway yang semakin besar dalam syarikat itu.

Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel told CNBC on Wednesday that Alphabet's AI position was a significant factor behind the investment.

“We have a lot of visibility from within our companies as to how we’re using AI, what type of benefits it’s delivering, so that brought incremental interest, and then we saw Google as a significant player,” he told the channel.

Berkshire added about $17 billion of Alphabet shares in the second quarter, making it the conglomerate's third-largest equity holding.

Its most recent filing showed roughly 106 million Alphabet Class A and Class C shares, worth around $36.6 billion based on the figures supplied.

That is not a reason by itself to buy the stock.

Berkshire can be wrong, and its investment horizon is much longer than that of many public-market investors.

Still, the decision is significant because Berkshire's investment is based partly on observing AI's impact across its portfolio companies.

It provides an outside vote of confidence that Alphabet's AI capabilities can translate into practical business benefits.

Google Cloud kekal sebagai peluang besar

Google Cloud gives Alphabet a direct route to monetize the massive infrastructure spending required by companies adopting AI.

Wolfe Research expects Google Cloud Platform revenue to grow 125% year over year in the third quarter, compared with the Street consensus of 87%.

If that forecast proves accurate, Cloud could become one of the most important drivers of Alphabet's earnings growth.

The company's proprietary tensor processing units also provide another potential source of upside.

Citizens JMP expects TPU sales to reach about $3 billion in 2026 and rise to $25 billion in 2027.

That matters because Alphabet is currently spending enormous amounts of money on AI infrastructure.

If its own chips can eventually generate significant revenue or lower the cost of running its AI services, some of that investment could translate into higher margins and earnings.

This is a longer-term argument, however.

Investors buying Alphabet today are effectively paying for some of that future potential before it is fully reflected in earnings.

Adakah saham Alphabet cukup murah untuk dibeli?

Recently, Rosenblatt Securities analyst Scott Devitt initiated coverage of GOOG with a “Buy” rating and a $410 price target.

Devitt said that “concerns around AI chatbots threatening Google's search business have largely played out."

The analyst also remains positive on Alphabet’s cloud business.

Valuation is where the bull and bear cases collide.

Alphabet's reported trailing P/E is around 17 times, while its forward P/E is roughly 25 times based on current market data.

The lower headline multiple makes the stock appear inexpensive compared with many high-growth technology companies.

But investors need to be careful about relying on the headline P/E.

Mohit Oberoi of Barchart argues that Alphabet's GAAP earnings have been boosted by substantial gains in its investment portfolio.

Alphabet reported $99 billion in "other income" in the second quarter, predominantly reflecting gains on investments including Anthropic and SpaceX, he said.

On adjusted earnings, Alphabet's forward P/E is closer to 25 times.

That makes the stock less obviously cheap.

The distinction matters because investors buying Alphabet are buying its future operating earnings, not simply gains from investments held on its balance sheet.

Wall Street also remains broadly bullish. Of 54 analysts tracked by Barchart, 47 rate Alphabet a "Strong Buy" and three a "Moderate Buy."

The mean target price is $432.25, implying more than 31% upside from current levels based on the figures provided.