Apple og Microsoft hæver priser pga. hukommelse: Bliver AI en inflationsmaskine?

BoomeT inden for kunstig intelligens er længe blevet præsenteret som en transformerende kraft, der ville øge produktiviteten og i sidste ende sænke omkostningerne i hele økonomien.

Men i denne uge blev investorer konfronteret med en mindre omdiskuteret konsekvens af AI-kapløbet: højere priser.

Apple og Microsoft annoncerede begge prisstigninger på produkter torsdag og henviste til kraftigt stigende omkostninger til hukommelse og lagring, som er blevet stadig mere knappe, efterhånden som teknologigiganter skyder hundreder af milliarder dollars ind i opbygningen af AI-infrastruktur.

Tiltagene forstærkede de voksende bekymringer om, at AI, i hvert fald på kort sigt, kan vise sig at være inflationsdrivende snarere end disinflationsskabende.

"Apples og Microsofts prisstigninger har ramt markedets frygt for inflation og øget bekymringen om, at AI-boomet, langt fra at være deflationært, kan være inflationsdrivende, især for den pressede forbruger, og skade frem for at fremme økonomisk vækst," sagde Chris Beauchamp, chefmarkedsanalytiker hos IG.

Hukommelsesmangel rammer forbrugerelektronik

Apple hævede priserne på flere MacBook- og iPad-modeller med mellem $100 og $300, men lod iPhone-priserne uændrede.

"Den hurtige udvidelse af AI-datacentre har skabt en ekstraordinær stigning i efterspørgslen efter hukommelse og lagring. Vi har aldrig set en komponentpris stige så meget, så hurtigt," sagde Apple i en erklæring.

Selskabet tilføjede, at det havde "nået et punkt, hvor vi er nødt til at begynde at hæve priserne på en række produkter," samtidig med at det pegede på, at yderligere stigninger kunne komme.

Markedreaktionen var hurtig. Apple-aktien faldt 6%, dets værste enkelt-dags nedgang i mere end et år.

Microsoft annoncerede lignende tiltag.

Softwaregiganten oplyste, at priserne på Xbox-konsoller vil stige globalt, med stigninger på $100 for 512-gigabyte-modeller og $150 for én-terabyte-versioner med virkning fra Aug. 1.

Selskabet sagde også, at det ville udfase sin two-terabyte Xbox-model.

Tiltagene føjede sig til en voksende liste over teknologiproducenter, der har hævet priser i år.

Dell, HP, Lenovo og Asus har alle varslet højere priser, mens Samsung øgede priserne på to varianter af sine Galaxy S26-smartphones i USA med $100.

Mangel på hukommelseschips og frygt for 'chipflation'

Prisforhøjelserne stammer fra en hidtil uset mangel på hukommelseschips.

Hukommelses- og lagerkomponenter er blevet kritiske ingredienser i AI-boomet, efterhånden som hyperscalere kappes om at bygge stadig kraftigere datacentre.

Leverandører har flyttet produktionen over mod hukommelseschips med høj båndbredde, som bruges i AI-servere, hvilket har efterladt producenter af forbrugerelektronik i kapløb om forsyninger.

"The four largest US technology companies are forecast to spend $725 billion on data centers and AI equipment in 2026 alone. That level of demand for memory chips has created a shortage the supply chain cannot keep pace with," said James Bull at RSM UK.

Bull sagde, at det i stigende grad var blevet tydeligt, at omkostningerne ved at opbygge AI-økonomien blev videreført til forbrugerne og potentielt til det bredere inflationsbillede.

Morgan Stanley analysts warned earlier this month that soaring memory prices could trigger "chipflation" across industries.

Meglerselskabet sagde, at priserne på hukommelseschips var steget seksfold over det seneste år.

"What began as an AI infrastructure bottleneck is now spreading into hardware margins, device affordability, cloud costs, inflation and policy," the bank wrote in a note.

Områder hvor AI-infrastruktur skaber nyt inflationspres

Nogle økonomer mener, at AI's inflationspåvirkning rækker ud over halvledere.

According to an April note by JPMorgan Asset Management's Chief Global Strategist David Kelly, the enormous spending wave tied to AI development is likely to be inflationary in the near term rather than deflationary because demand is hitting the economy well before productivity gains materialise.

Kelly erkendte, at stigende hukommelseschippriser er en kanal, hvorigennem AI-investeringer kunne føre til højere priser, men sagde, at de endnu ikke udgør en væsentlig kilde til økonomisk bred inflation.

I stedet pegede han på andre fremvoksende pres. Et af de tydeligste eksempler er efterspørgslen efter elektricitet.

"One aspect of this demand is spending on electricity. After more than a decade of no growth, US electricity production rose by 2.5% in 2024, 2.4% in 2025 and was up by 3.0% year-over-year in March of 2026," he said, noting that much of the increase was driven by data centre consumption and the growing use of AI models for training and inference.

Kelly said this likely contributed to a 4.6% year-over-year increase in consumer electricity prices in March.

However, because electricity carries a weight of only about 2.5% in the consumer price index basket, higher power costs accounted for just 0.1 percentage point of March's 3.3% annual rise in headline inflation.

The construction boom linked to AI data centres is also creating labour pressures.

Construction workers saw wages rise 4.3% year-over-year in March, outpacing the 3.5% increase recorded across the broader private sector.

However, Kelly said this acceleration was probably driven more by labour shortages than by AI itself.

The total number of US construction workers increased only 0.7% over the past year, partly reflecting a sharp reversal in immigration trends in a sector that has historically relied heavily on immigrant labour.

AI productivity gains could eventually ease inflation, economists say

Kelly, however, said it was unlikely that most corporations had so far realised significant cost savings from deploying the latest AI models and even less likely that any savings had been passed on to consumers.

"There is a small but growing number of layoff announcements explicitly attributed to AI and there are some signs of diminished hiring of entry-level workers in the most AI-exposed industries," he said.

He added that fears that AI will "take your job" could also be making workers more cautious, with economywide year-over-year wage growth falling to an almost five-year low in March.

More recent data from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas suggests AI's impact on employment is becoming more pronounced, though.

US-based employers announced 97,006 job cuts in May, with artificial intelligence accounting for roughly 40% of all layoffs announced during the month.

It marked the third consecutive month in which AI was the leading reason cited for job reductions.

"Despite this labor market 'scare' effect, however, it does appear that AI is, on balance, adding slightly to inflation in the short run, although it will be far from the most important inflation driver. If this continues to be the case, over say, the next two years, then this alone would negate the idea that a disinflationary impulse from AI supports the need for short-term interest rate cuts," Kelly said.

He expects AI to become a powerful disinflationary force over the longer term as productivity gains begin to emerge and spread across the economy.

Goldman Sachs has echoed that assessment, saying AI is currently adding to inflationary pressures even though it should ultimately lower production costs and lift economic growth.

"We expect artificial intelligence to deliver large productivity gains over the next several years, boosting the economy's potential growth rate and putting downward pressure on production costs. So far, however, AI is boosting US inflation," Goldman Sachs economists wrote last month.