SoftBank stiger 5% på Nikkei-rally, men BOJ kan ødelægge festen

SoftBank Group steg mere end 5% i Tokyo fredag, da teknologisektoren steg i kølvandet på aftagende frygt for en ny amerikansk renteforhøjelse.

SoftBank rose 5.3% in early trade, helping the Nikkei 225 climb 1.8% to 69,523.56.

The move followed mindre end ventede US producer-price data, which pushed the probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September down to about 35%.

For SoftBank, whose valuation is increasingly tied to AI assets including Arm and OpenAI, easier US rate expectations are supportive.

Men investorer bliver også mere overbeviste om, at BOJ vil stramme igen i september, hvilket skaber valutarisiko.

SoftBank bliver et større sats på AI

SoftBanks følsomhed over for stemningen i den globale teknologisektor er steget, efterhånden som Masayoshi Son har koncentreret gruppen om AI.

Its net asset value jumped from about ¥40 trillion at the end of March to ¥72.3 trillion at the end of June, helped by gains in Arm and Intel.

July’s market correction then pushed NAV back towards ¥58.3 trillion by August 5, showing how quickly paper wealth can move when technology valuations turn.

Lower US rate expectations can support expensive technology assets, improving the backdrop for businesses that make up a larger share of SoftBank’s portfolio.

Deutsche Bank analyst Peter Milliken has warned about the other side.

MarketWatch reported in June that Milliken downgraded SoftBank to Hold, saying investors were “vulnerable to a reversal” in either elevated technology prices or the weak yen after the stock’s enormous run.

BOJ bliver sværere at ignorere

The BOJ raised its policy rate to 1% in June, and expectations for another increase are strengthening after yen weakness and elevated inflation.

Markets now see a 76% probability of a September hike, according to Tokyo Tanshi, up from 24% on July 30.

Den tidligere japanske valutadiplomat Mitsuhiro Furusawa fortalte Reuters, at de fleste markedsdeltagere nu forventer, at BOJ handler næste måned.

Citi has taken a similarly hawkish view. Analysts told the Financial Times that “more hawkish action than previously is now clearly required” and forecast the policy rate reaching 2% by the end of 2027.

Goldman Sachs has said risks are skewed towards an earlier rate increase.

The mechanism matters for SoftBank, as higher Japanese rates can strengthen the yen by narrowing the yield gap with the US.

A stronger yen reduces the yen-translated value of dollar-denominated overseas assets and removes part of the currency tailwind that helped SoftBank during the yen’s decline.

En stærkere yen kan sætte SoftBanks stigning på prøve

SoftBank har stadig stærke grunde til at stige. Arm forbliver central i AI-chip-økosystemet, OpenAI repræsenterer et af Sons største væddemål, og gruppen forpligter endnu milliarder til datacentre og AI-infrastruktur.

Men disse eksponeringer gør aktien usædvanligt følsom over for teknologiværdiansættelser og valutakursudsving.

En hurtigt stigende yen kunne også udløse bredere volatilitet ved at få investorer til at afvikle yen-finansierede carry trades, hvor billig japansk lånefinansiering bruges til at investere i højereafkastende aktiver i udlandet.

Det betyder ikke, at én BOJ-hævning ville afslutte SoftBanks AI-rally.

Dets udenlandske beholdninger kunne stige i værdi og opveje valutapresset, mens en gradvis yen-genopretning ville være mindre forstyrrende end et pludseligt spring.