How New York’s real estate differs from the rest of the whole

By: Damian Wood
Damian Wood
As an experienced trader, I work for myself managing my own small portfolio and also contributing on several investment news sites.… read more.
on Dec 18, 2019
Updated: Mar 11, 2020
  • After the 2008 crisis, New York recovered to become one of the most sought-after real estate investment destinations globally.
  • By December 2016, the presidential election had shaken the New York real estate to its roots making investors even more cautious as they waited to see what the presidency would bring.
  • New York’s Manhattan’s real estate market is uncorrelated to stocks and low-interest rates. When interest rates drop and stock prices rise, the prices of the city’s properties fall.

In recent times, different real estate predictions from various experts on cities such as Boston and Washington show a thriving sector occasioned by tight inventory and low-interest rates. While property price increments have stalled in these cities, their demand and prices continue to stabilise.

But when it comes to the overall US real estate outlook, statistics are less pleasant: most urban areas have seen home value growth decline to 2015 levels. However, the narrative is different for the city of New York.

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Since the 2008 crisis, New York has recovered to become one of the most sought-after real estate investment destinations globally. After the 2008/2009 recession, New York properties started rising steadily at an annual rate of 4% and then peaked in 2015.

However, as we approached 2016, buyers started investing more cautiously as the condos’ inventories soared. Condos were part of a development plan that was meant to cater to a projected demand for such units in years that followed the 2008 recession.

Foreign investors, especially from Russia and China, who many US developers were counting on, started shying away from buying US properties. Russian investors completed pulled out of the US real estate, entirely.

By December 2016, the presidential election had shaken the New York real estate to its roots. Investors became even more cautious as they waited to see what the presidency would bring forth.

In 2017, the tax amendments brought the loss of state and local (SALT) tax deductions, leading to higher taxes for New Yorkers.

Natively a finance industry-based city and one most densely populated of New York’s five boroughs, Manhattan’s real estate has surprising been uncorrelated to the stock market. As interest rates drop lower and stock prices rise, the costs of the city’s properties fall.

The same applies to Brooklyn, yet another city that has experienced tremendous growth since the 2008 recession; in the past few years, its property market has been showing signs of slipping backwards.

The New York real estate seems to have reached the floor, and prices are bound to stabilise at that point. However, it may take time for investors to accept where prices are today.

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