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Bitcoin S2F price prediction model faces heavy criticism

on Jul 2, 2020

Predicting the price of Bitcoin has been one of the obsessions of the crypto industry for over a decade now. Everyone wishes to know whether BTC has reached its peak, or if it only scratched the surface. Even when it comes to short-term price movements, people wish to know if they should buy or sell.

And, naturally, there are plenty of metrics, methods, opinions, claims, predictions, forecasts, and alike, that can help traders and investors decide. Some are more accurate than others, but the most popular ones and the most accurate ones are not always one and the same.

For example, the stock-to-flow (S2F) chart is rather popular for predicting BTC price. But, the model was recently heavily criticized due to its inaccuracy.

Crypto quant fund Strix Leviathan’s CIO, Nico Cordeiro, recently stated that the S2F is a chameleon. This is a term that was used by Paul Pleifderer, a Stanford professor, who used it to describe models that were created by using dubious assumptions.

Apart from borrowing the term, Cordeiro also noted that its accuracy is about as good as using astrology.

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PlanB was not accurate enough for the critics

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The criticism comes after analyst PlanB on Twitter released their signature chart on June 1st, with the chart indicating that a major bull run is expected to commence.

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This was no ordinary bull run, either — the prediction that PlanB made indicated that BTC would start a surge that would take it to $100,000 before the end of 2021. However, as everyone knows now, the token spent the month going up and down between $9k and $10k — far from what was predicted.

With the start of July, PlanB once again updated their S2F chart, this time with a new red dot. This time, they indicated that two months have passed since Bitcoin’s block rewards were cut in half.

Cordeiro continued to bash the S2F chart approach, although he did admit that the chart has ‘viral popularity.’ Of course, PlanB defended his research, while also criticizing the critic’s arguments.

Cordeiro is also not the only skeptic out there, and it appears that even Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin said that the idea that halvings can directly produce bull runs is ‘unfalsifiable.’


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