- Major US crypto exchange, Kraken, recently published a new BTC price forecast.
- The forecast predicts that BTC will move up in the next few months, possibly by 50% to 200%.
- The report noted a few technical indicators, like low volatility, correlation with gold, and its behavior.
Bitcoin price has recently seen quite a few major moves up, both of which saw the coin hit a resistance at $12k before seeing a price correction. However, this performance gave hope to investors that a major rally that everyone has been expecting might finally be ready to start.
Kraken predicts a huge rally
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The report predicts that Bitcoin might see a rally that could take it up between 50% and 200%, and that it will likely happen in the following few months.
The report relies on some technical indicators, such as the fact that BTC saw a 23% volatility only a few weeks back, on July 24th. This was a 21-month low, and it falls under one of the coin’s historic lows, all of which were between 15% and 30%, and were followed by massive rallies.
Further, historical data shows that August is one of the most volatile months for BTC, which might mean that the predicted move up could start at some point in the next few weeks.
Bitcoin’s behavior in July
Interestingly, Kraken also noted that BTC’s behavior in July was rather unusual. July is usually one of the weakest months for BTC price performance. And yet. July 2020 was the second-strongest July that BTC has ever experienced.
Its price went up by 14,5% in the last four days of the month, and it drove the coin’s overall performance to a massive 24% gain. Even before the surge, the low volatility was quite unusual for BTC. But, according to Kraken, the last week of July saw around 44% of the month’s total trading volume.
5/ On average, after falling into the suppressed pocket, volatility has surged over the next 3 months to a high of 140%, and, in 10 out of 12 cases, a gain of +196%.
If history repeats, volatility may exceed 100% in the months ahead as #Bitcoin rallies roughly +50% to +200%. pic.twitter.com/CJ7Dj4mmH1— Kraken Exchange (@krakenfx) August 11, 2020
Lastly, the report also hinted that BTC sees a strong 30-day correlation with gold, which recently surged to 0.93. This is a one-year high, and it comes right after the correlation dropped to a 10-month low, marking a major change in how the two assets affect each other.