USD/CNY: Yuan holds steady after signs of strong Chinese recovery

By: Crispus Nyaga
Crispus Nyaga
Crispus is an active trader, where he is followed and copied at Capital.com. He lives in Nairobi with his wife, son,… read more.
on Mar 15, 2021
  • The Chinese yuan held steady after strong Chinese data.
  • China’s industrial production increased by 35.1% in February.
  • Fixed asset investments increased by 35% from 2.9%.

The USD/CNY price declined after the relatively strong economic data from China, the second-biggest economy in the world. The pair dropped to 6.4947, which is slightly below Friday’s close of 6.5100.

USD/CNY chart

China in a strong rebound

The Chinese economy has made a lot of progress in the past few months. It was the only major global economy to record an annual GDP growth last year, according to the statistics agency.

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This growth is continuing this year as international demand and private consumption continues to rebound. Two weeks ago, data by the statistics office showed that the country’s exports and imports soared in January leading to a monthly surplus of more than $100 billion.

And today, numbers revealed that retail sales increased by 33.8% in February as the country marked the Lunar New Year. This improvement was better than January’s growth of 4.6% and the median estimate of 32.0%. In total, sales rose by 33.78% since January. 

Meanwhile, the country’s industrial production increased from 7.3% in January to 35.1% in February. Analysts were expecting the figure to come in at 30.0%. Further, fixed asset investments, which are a key part of the economy, increased by35.0% while the house price index increased by 4.3%. 

Analysts at many banks and forex brokers believe that the Chinese rebound will continue this year. They cite the recent US government stimulus package and the upcoming infrastructural spending package. As one of the US biggest trading partner, the country will benefit substantially after the deal. Also, demand for Chinese goods will keep rising as the world economy recovers.

USD/CNY technical forecast

USD/CNY
USD/CNY chart

The USD/CNY bounced above the important resistance at 6.4947 last week as US yields kept rising. It then rose to a multi-month high of 6.5435 and then erased some of the gains after the US inflation numbers.

The USD/CNY price is hovering slightly above the resistance at 6.5435 and is still along the 15-day and 25-day exponential moving averages (EMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also at the neutral level of 50.

The pair also seems to be forming a small bullish flag pattern. Therefore, the pair may rebound in the near term as bulls target the next key resistance level at 6.52. Still, traders should be cautious trading the pair because of potential interventions by the PBOC.

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