Crude Oil Price Forecast Ahead of OPEC Ministerial Meeting
- Crude oil remains range-bound for the fifth session.
- Rising COVID-19 cases and the OPEC joint ministerial meeting will impact pries in ensuing sessions.
- Two weeks ago, OPEC rose its forecast of global oil demand; citing it will increase by 6.6%
Crude oil price has been range-bound for the fifth consecutive session. The rectangular pattern is the market’s reaction to the ongoing optimism of global economic recovery and pessimism from rising COVID-19 cases. On Monday, WTI futures were down by 1.06% at $61.45. At the same time, Brent futures fell by 0.58% to $65.04.
OPEC Ministerial Meeting
Crude oil price awaits cues from the JMMC (Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee) meeting scheduled for 28th April. The ministerial meeting for OPEC and non-OPEC countries is also set to take place on the same day. In preparation of the two events, JTC (Joint Technical Committee) held a virtual meeting on Monday to review the current conditions in the oil market.
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While opening the meeting, the OPEC Secretary General, Mohammad Barkindo indicated, “There are positive signals regarding the global economy and prospects of our industry.” However, he was keen to note that the oil-producing countries have a crucial role to play in reviving the oil industry and global economy.
Two weeks ago, OPEC adjusted its forecast for global oil demand to the upside. According to the coalition, demand will increase by 6.6%; an equivalent of 5.95 million bpd. For those looking to trade oil, the focus will be on JMMC’s outlook as countries such as India and Japan continue to struggle with rising COVID-19 cases.
Crude Oil Price Technical Outlook
Crude oil price remains within a rectangular pattern whose upper and lower limits are 62.50 and 60.58 respectively. On Monday, WTI futures were down by 1.06% at 61.45. The range-bound trading has been ongoing for five consecutive sessions. On a 2-hour chart, it is trading below the 25 and 50-day exponential moving averages.
In my opinion, crude oil price will remain within its current range in the ensuing sessions. Upon hitting 62, it will experience some resistance and lack enough energy to reach 62.50. On the lower end, 60.58 will remain a key support level. However, a move below 60 will have the bears targeting 59.