Analyst: This is the one metric that matters most in Tesla’s earnings report

By:
on Apr 26, 2021
  • Dan Ives says projected deliveries is the key figure in Tesla’s earnings report.
  • WedBush Securities raised its target for Tesla's stock to $1,000 per share.
  • Tesla shares were reported over 1% up in premarket trading on Monday.

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is scheduled to report its financial results for the fiscal first quarter on Monday after the bell. Experts are calling for 55 pence of earnings per share for Tesla in Q1. Their forecast for revenue in the recent quarter stands at £7.45 billion.

Tesla shares were reported more than 1% up in premarket trading on Monday. Including the price action, the stock is now exchanging hands at £533.84 per share. In comparison, it had hit a year-to-date low of £405.42 per share in early March.

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Dan Ives joined CNBC’s Squawk Box on Monday

While analysts and investors are likely to be interested in updates on increasing competition and autopilot safety issues as well, Managing Director Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities said on CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning that the most important thing to hear tonight will be the projected deliveries.

“Before, the forecast for deliveries in 2021 was for 800 thousand. But now, despite all the sceptics, competition, and chip shortage issues, I believe we could now be starting to go towards 900 thousand. If that ultimately comes out in terms of some sort of goalpost, I believe this could be the next step in the stock going towards $1,000.”

Analysts expect Tesla to report automotive gross margin at 24.3%, and EBITDA margin at 17.0% on an adjusted basis. The American electric vehicle and clean energy company is likely to value its capital expenditures in Q1 at £740 million.

Dan Ives comments on EV tax credit

Tesla delivered 184.8 thousand vehicles in the first quarter versus a lower 168 thousand deliveries expected. Ives also commented on the EV tax credit on Monday and said:

“As much as 30% of emissions come from transportation, 7,500 the EV credit today. We believe if that gets up to 10 thousand which is key about incentivising consumers but the big one for Tesla. Tesla and GM have a ceiling right now. 200 thousand was the ceiling, and they’ve hit it. So, you don’t get those tax credits. We believe as this goes through the hill, those gets removed, tax credits get restored, and it’s important because we talk about the green tidal wave. The U.S. has lagged significantly. That starts to come in along with Europe and China. Then you really start to see the success.”

In the prior quarter Q4, Tesla had missed on earnings estimates. At the time of writing, the Nasdaq-listed company is valued at £504 billion and has a price to earnings ratio of 1,144.84.

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