Crude oil price: Here’s the logic behind the $100 per barrel call

By: Faith Maina
Faith Maina
Faith strives to break down complex developments so investors can make better informed decisions. When Faith is not immersed… read more.
on Jun 24, 2021
  • According to Bank of America Securities, crude oil price may hit $100 per barrel by 2022.
  • The steady decline in US oil inventories signals the continued unleashing of pent-up demand.
  • Over the past two sessions, Brent has remained steady above $75 while WTI oil is trading above $73.

Crude oil price remains steady above $75 amid talks of the probable $100 per barrel. At the time of writing, Brent futures were at $75.56 while WTI futures were at 73.42.

Reasons behind the $100 pr barrel forecast

According to the Bank of America Securities, the demand dynamics are likely to fuel the rallying of global oil prices to $100 by 2022. During an interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance”, the firm’s head of global commodities and derivatives research, Francisco Blanch substantiated the thesis by citing the pent-up demand.

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Since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, more people have been working from home, in addition to embracing online services. However, progress of the vaccination program in different parts of the world is likely to trigger the gradual yet steady rise in oil demand. Besides, more people are likely to opt for private transportation in line with the coronavirus-related measures of maintaining safe distance and avoiding crowded places.

Blanch’s remarks come at a time when the US oil inventories have continued to boost crude oil price. On Wednesday, the Energy Information Agency (EIA) indicated that oil stockpiles had dropped by 7.614 million barrels for the week ending 18th June. The figure was better than the expected draw of 3.942 million barrels and the prior week’s reading of -7.355 million barrels.

At the same time, gasoline inventories fell by 2.930 million barrels after rising by 1.954 million barrels in the previous week. Economists had expected a lesser build of 0.833 million barrels.

Brent oil technical outlook

Crude oil price has remained steady above the crucial level of 75 for the second consecutive session. At the time of writing, Brent futures were up by 0.21% at 75.56. It is on a rebound after dropping from an intraday high of 76 in the previous session. The positive demand outlook has pushed prices from an intraday low of 72.96 on Monday to its highest level since October 2018. On an hourly chart, the price is above the five and ten-week exponential moving averages.

I expect crude oil price to rebound to Wednesday’s high of 76. At that level, it is likely to experience some resistance before surging further towards its next target at 77. On the flip side, it may pull back to find support along the 25-day EMA at 75.31. A move below that level would have the bears eyeing 75.

crude oil price
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