Crude oil price: key levels to watch ahead of US oil inventory data

on Jul 7, 2021
  • Crude oil price is up by 0.48% at $74.12 after dropping by over 5% in the previous session.
  • The plunge was due to the overcrowding of bullish bets and optimism on the OPEC+ issue.
  • Investors are now keen on the US oi inventory data from API on Wednesday and EIA on Thursday.

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Crude oil price is on a rebound ahead of the weekly US oil inventory data. WTI futures are up by 0.48% at $74.12. Brent futures are also up by 0.72% at $75.07.

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crude oil price

OPEC+ talks

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Crude oil price hit a 6-year high earlier on Tuesday as a reaction to the OPEC+ crisis. The coalition postponed its meeting to an undisclosed date as the UAE and Saudi Arabia failed to agree on the details of the production proposal. However, the subsequent overcrowding of bullish bets triggered a plunge of over 5%. Besides, investors remain optimistic that the alliance will reach an agreement in the foreseeable future.

US crude oil inventory data

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Crude oil price is also be reacting to the weekly US oil inventory data scheduled for today’s session. Late on Wednesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) is set to release its figures. Investors will then be keen on whether the Energy Information Administration (EIA) confirms the highlighted trend on Thursday.

In the last release, API noted that crude oil inventories had dropped by 8.153 million barrels for the week ending on 25th June. The number was better than the forecasted draw of 4.460 million barrels and the prior reading of -7.199 million barrels.

EIA also highlighted a similar trend by indicating that crude oil stockpiles dropped by 6.718 million barrels compared to the expected reading of -4.686 million barrels and the prior week’s -7.614 million barrels. As for gasoline, inventories rose by 1.522 million barrels as per the last release. This week, analysts expect a reading of -0.886 million barrels. Better-than-expected figures are likely to act as a bullish catalyst for crude oil price.

Crude oil price technical outlook

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Crude oil price has moved past the bearish flag it formed earlier in the day. At the time of writing, the benchmark of US oil – WTI futures – was up by 0.48% at 74.12. On Tuesday, it plunged from an intraday high of 76.96 to a low of 72.95. On a two-hour chart, it is still trading below the 25 and 50-day EMAs.

As investors wait for this week’s US oil inventory data, I expect crude oil price to find support at the psychological level of 74.00. It may rise further to 74.61, which is along the 50-day EMA. Subsequently, higher-than-expected stockpile data is likely to push the prices higher past 75.00 as the bulls target this week’s high of 76 and 77. On the flip side, a lesser-than-expected draw may place the support level at 74 or 73.

crude oil price

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