Crude oil price forecast ahead of the OPEC+ meeting

By: Faith Maina
Faith Maina
Faith strives to break down complex developments so investors can make better informed decisions. When Faith is not immersed… read more.
on Oct 1, 2021
  • Crude oil price remains below crucial resistance level of $80 while finding support at $78.
  • Investors are keen on the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Monday.
  • According to several sources, the coalition may increase production above the current 400,000 bpd.

Crude oil price remains below the crucial resistance level of $80 after the bulls’ attempt to push past that zone earlier in the week.  Focus is now on OPEC+ meeting in the coming week.

crude oil price
crude oil price

In the short term, the commodity may trade within a tight range as eyes remain fixated on the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Monday. Investors will be keen on the details of the meeting and the impact on oil price movements. Several sources have indicated that the coalition is contemplating increasing output from the current 400,000 bpd.

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At the same time, the soaring natural gas prices is boosting crude oil price. Indeed, oil is increasingly becoming the go-to alternative in different parts of the world. The Middle East and Pakistan are some of the countries where generators have begun using a different form of fuel other than gas.  

The last time oil reached $80 per barrel, which was during the pre-pandemic period, supply levels were higher than they currently are. With the positive demand outlook in mind, the market is likely to remain tight for the remainder of the year even if OPEC increases supply.

Crude oil price prediction

As markets enter a new month, crude oil price still has its gains curbed below the crucial resistance level of 80. After surging to a three-year high of 80.70 earlier in the week, the global oil benchmark – Brent futures – have been finding support at 78.00. Granted, the bears attempted to push the price below 77.00 on Thursday.

At the time of writing, Brent oil was down by 0.11% at 78.24. On a four-hour chart, it is trading along the 25-day EMA and slightly above the 50-day EMA.

In the near term, crude oil price will likely trade within a rather tight range. If that happens, the horizontal channel’s upper and lower borders will probably be at the week’s resistance level of 79.69 and along the 50-day EMA at 77.53 respectively.

However, as the new month unfolds, I expect the bulls to successfully push the price past the resistance zone of 80 towards the next target at October 2018’s high of 85.45. On the downside, 75 will remain a crucial support level.

crude oil price
crude oil price

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