USD/CHF forecast ahead of the Swiss inflation and retail sales data

on Oct 4, 2021
  • The USD/CHF pair declined slightly ahead of the upcoming Swiss retail sales data.
  • The Swiss statistics agency will also publish the latest inflation numbers.
  • The next key catalyst will be the US jobs numbers.

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The USD/CHF price was in a tight range on Monday morning as investors waited for the latest Switzerland consumer price index (CPI) data. It is trading at 0.9300, which is slightly below last week’s high of 0.9367.

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Swiss inflation ahead

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The biggest catalyst for the USD/CHF price on Monday will be the latest Swiss consumer price index (CPI) and retail sales numbers. The data will come out on Monday morning. 

In general, analysts expect the data to show that the Swiss consumer inflation remained unchanged at 0.2% in September. On a year-on-year basis, the CPI is expected to have risen from 0.9% to 1.1%. Still, the country’s inflation is substantially below that of other countries. 

For example, in the US, consumer prices have risen by more than 5% while in the Eurozone, data showed that prices rose to a 13-year high of 3.4% in September. 

The USD/CHF price will also react to the latest Swiss retail sales data. The numbers are expected to show that sales rose in August after they declined by 2.6% in the previous month.

These numbers will come two weeks after the latest Swiss National Bank (SNB) decision. The bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged. It also warned that the CHF was significantly overvalued and that it will do whatever it can to stabilize the currency.

The SNB currency stabilization measures have been rising. In 2020, the SNB spent more than $100 billion on currency interventions. The bank also spent more than $9.65 billion in currency interventions in the second quarter.

The USD/CHF pair’s biggest catalyst will be the latest US non-farm payroll numbers that are scheduled for Friday this week.

USD/CHF forecast

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The four-hour chart shows that the USD/CHF pair is trading at 0.9300. This price is slightly below last week’s high at 0.9367. It is slightly above the upper side of the ascending channel and is along the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. 

Therefore, the pair will likely maintain a bearish trend this week as bears target the lower side of the channel at about 0.9250. On the flip side, a move above the key resistance at 0.9340 will invalidate the bearish view.

CHF Forex