AUD/USD Forecast: here’s why the Aussie could pop by 1.12%

By: Crispus Nyaga
Crispus Nyaga
Crispus is an active trader, where he is followed and copied at Capital.com. He lives in Nairobi with his… read more.
on Oct 14, 2021
  • The AUD/USD pair has jumped sharply in the past few sessions.
  • The pair rose after the relatively weak Australian jobs data.
  • We explain why the pair could soon jump by about 1.12%.

The AUD/USD price held steady close to its highest level since September 10 as investors reacted to the American inflation and Australia’s jobs numbers. The pair is trading at 0.7385, which is about 3% above the lowest level this month.

Australia jobs data

The Australian labour market continued to struggle in September as the country continued to deal with the new wave of the pandemic. According to the statistics bureau, Australia lost more than 138k jobs in September after losing an additional 146k in August. The job losses were lower than the median estimate of 137k. 

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Meanwhile, Australia’s unemployment rate rose from 4.5% in August to 4.6% in September while the participation rate slipped to 64.5%. 

Analysts believe that the labour market will make a strong comeback in the coming months. Besides, Australia has started to unwind some of the lockdowns that helped push the unemployment rate higher. At the same time, the government is making preparations for allowing foreign travellers back to the country. This will lead to more service jobs like those in the tourism and hotel sectors. 

The AUD/USD also held steady after the latest American inflation data. According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), American inflation rose from 5.3% in August to 5.4% in September as the prices of commodities rose. This increase was also driven by the rising logistics challenges, which has led to higher shipping costs. 

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve published the minutes of the last meeting on Wednesday. In the minutes, the Fed officials hinted that tapering will come in the coming months. The officials also expect that rate hikes will start in 2022.

AUD/USD forecast

aud/usd

The four-hour chart shows that the AUD/USD pair has made steady progress in the past few days. The pair managed to rise above the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern at 0.7312. It also managed to move above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the MACD has continued rising.

Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the key resistance at 0.7478, which was the highest level in September. This price is about 1.18% above the current level. This view will be invalidated if the price drops below the key support at 0.7312.

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