USD/CAD forecast ahead of the US and Canada jobs data

By: Crispus Nyaga
Crispus Nyaga
Crispus is an active trader, where he is followed and copied at Capital.com. He lives in Nairobi with his… read more.
on Dec 3, 2021
  • The USD/CAD pair has been in a strong bullish trend.
  • It has risen by more than 4.5% from the lowest level in October.
  • We explain what to expect ahead of Canada and US jobs data.

The USD/CAD held steady on Friday morning as the market waited for the latest US and Canada jobs data. The pair also rose after the latest OPEC+ meeting. It is trading at 1.2830, which is about 4.40% above the lowest level in October this year.

Canada and US jobs data

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the latest jobs numbers on Friday. Economists expect the data to show that the country’s economy created more than 543k jobs in November. This will be the second straight month that the economy has added more than 500k jobs. It will be a signal that the labour market is doing relatively strong.

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The unemployment rate is expected to decline from 4.6% in October to 4.5% in November. This will be the lowest figure since the pandemic started. It will also be a sign that the American economy is experiencing full employment, which happens when the rate falls below 5%.

Other numbers from the US are expected to be strong. Economists see the participation rate rising to 61.7% and wages rising to 5.0%. These numbers will come a few days after the Federal Reserve chair hinted that the bank will start tightening its monetary policy.

The USD/CAD pair also rose ahead of the latest Canada jobs numbers. The numbers are expected to show that the country’s economy added more than 35,000 jobs in November after it added 31k in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to drop to 6.1%. 

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar also slipped after the OPEC+ members concluded their December meeting. They decided to continue adding their supplies by about 400k barrels. This was seen as being bearish considering that the world is facing the challenge of Omicron variant.

USD/CAD forecast

USD/CAD

The four-hour chart shows that the USD/CAD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few weeks. It has risen by more than 4% from the lowest level in October this year. Also, the pair is being supported by the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It is also slightly above the ascending trendline that is shown in blue. 

Therefore, the USDCAD pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the key resistance level at 1.2900. This was the highest level in September.

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