Best currencies to buy as global central banks turn hawkish
- Most central banks in the developed world have recently turned bullish.
- The Fed, ECB, and BOE are expected to hike rates this year.
- We explain why the yen, Canadian dollar, and Swiss franc are good buys.
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The world of monetary policy is changing as the global economy rebounds. In the past few months, most central banks have provided hints that they will start tightening. In theory, these announcements will be a good thing for several currencies. So, here are the top currencies to focus on as rates rise.
The Japanese yen (USD/JPY) has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few months. Precisely, the USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY have risen by more than 10% in the past 12 months. This trend is mostly because the Fed, European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) have all started tightening.
The Bank of Japan, on the other hand, has continued being significantly dovish considering that consumer prices are under pressure. However, there are signs that inflation has started rising in Japan. As such, there is a possibility that the BOJ will embrace a hawkish tone in 2022. If this happens, it will catch investors by surprise and push the yen higher.
The Canadian dollar has moved sideways recently. The USD/CAD pair is trading at 1.2683, which is about 5.67% above the lowest level in 2021. Still, there are some reasons why the Canadian dollar will likely do well as the Fed and Bank of Canad (BOC) emnbrace a hawkish tone.
First, the BOC has already hinted that more rate hikes were on the way. Analysts believe that the BOC will deliver about 4 rate hikes this year in its battle against inflation. Second, the country is benefiting from the performance of crude oil prices.
Brent and WTI are both trading at their highest levels in more than 7 years. This is notable since Canada is the fourth biggest oil exporter in the world.
Third, Canada will benefit from the American recovery. Besides, it is one of the biggest American trading partners in the world.
The Swiss franc has moved sideways against the US dollar. The USD/CHF pair is trading at 0.9230, which is about 3.4% above the lowest level last year. The EUR/CHF, on the other hand, has declined by over 5% from the highest level in 2021.
The Swiss franc could see some positive moves if the Swiss National Bank decides to embrace a hawkish tone in 2022. That’s because the bank has remained adamant that it will not hike rates any time soon since it believes that the franc is overvalued.
Therefore, any change in tone by the SNB will likely push the Swiss franc higher against the US dollar and the euro.